--- title: Climate Change Flooding: Why Flooding Risk Is Worse Than We Thought description: The way scientists have traditionally analyzed storm surge and heavy rainfall may underestimate flood risk in the United States. canonical: https://time.com/3973256/flooding-risk-coastal-cities/ author: Justin Worland article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-07-27T19:43:06.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:58:24.183Z article:section: Science og:title: U.S. Flood Risk Could Be Worse Than We Thought og:description: We've underestimated the flood risk for major coastal cities og:url: https://time.com/3973256/flooding-risk-coastal-cities/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf00466267da5de70/69885c9d0b72e37eac6e51aa/flooding-climate-change.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 4549 og:image:height: 2559 og:image:alt: flooding climate change og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: U.S. Flood Risk Could Be Worse Than We Thought twitter:description: We've underestimated the flood risk for major coastal cities twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf00466267da5de70/69885c9d0b72e37eac6e51aa/flooding-climate-change.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # U.S. Flood Risk Could Be Worse Than We Thought > Sponsored content. 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It reaches 40,000 subscribers with a 34.2% open rate and a 2.1% click rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I follow the energy transition as a business story? Future Proof covers climate and energy as an economic and business story rather than only an environmental one. It publishes every Friday and is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who writes Future Proof? Justin Worland, a senior correspondent at TIME and an award-winning climate journalist, writes Future Proof. #### Is Future Proof free? Yes. Future Proof is free at time.com/newsletters. ## Video: Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather? [Watch (HLS stream): Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/LQufbOt9.m3u8) (2:04)  _Published 2013-11-11. Is the frequency of extreme weather events a sign that global warming is gaining pace and exceeding predictions? Climate scientist Bill Patzert explains._  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Jul 27, 2015 7:43 PM UTC  Build Structures And Sea Storm Build Structures And Sea Storm Getty Images  by [Justin Worland](https://time.com/author/justin-worland/)  ## Justin Worland Senior Correspondent Jul 27, 2015 7:43 PM UTC The way scientists have traditionally analyzed storm surge and heavy rainfall, the two main drivers of flooding in coastal communities, may underestimate flood risk in the United States, according to new research. In the past, disaster experts have used analyzed storm surges and high rainfall separately to define flood zones and devise preparedness plans. The [study](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2736.html), published in the journal _Nature Climate Change_, shows that this method underestimates the risk of storm surges and high rainfall occurring at the same time. The number of these so-called compound events has increased over the past 100 years, researchers found. New York City, for instance, has experienced an increase in the number of compound events with both storm surge and high precipitation in recent years, a change researchers write can be attributed to “storm surge weather patterns that also \[favor\] high precipitation.” Overall, a reevaluation of potential flooding scenarios that includes the possibility of compound events more than doubled odds of flooding in the city. “Usually it requires an extreme storm surge to cause flooding or an extreme rainfall event,” said study author Thomas Wahl, a researcher at the University of South Florida. “But the combination of two events that are not really extreme on their own may cause larger damages than one of the two events alone.” **Read More**: [This Factor Predicts What People Think About Climate Change](http://time.com/3972986/climate-change-education/) The risk of these compound events varies greatly from city to city, according to the study. Cities most prone to hurricanes and other large storms on the East and Gulf coasts are more vulnerable than their West coast counterparts, for instance. Researchers note that while the new research looks at storm surge and precipitation, long-term sea level rise remains the biggest driver of increased flood risk. A [study](http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.pdf) released last week suggests that sea levels may rise by 10 feet above current levels within the next century. The estimates, which would make places like New York City and London uninhabitable, significantly exceed those by the widely-respected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and have been met with skepticism by many climate scientists. “Continued high emissions would result in multi-meter sea level rise this century and lock in continued ice sheet disintegration such that building cities or rebuilding cities on coast lines would become foolish,” Hansen wrote in a [statement](http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2015/20150727%5FSeaLevelDisaster.pdf) accompanying his paper. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3973256/flooding-risk-coastal-cities/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3973256/flooding-risk-coastal-cities/"},"headline":"U.S. Flood Risk Could Be Worse Than We Thought","datePublished":"2015-07-27T19:43:06.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-04T07:58:24.183Z","description":"A new study looks at what happens when storm surge occurs at the same time as high rain fall","url":"https://time.com/3973256/flooding-risk-coastal-cities/","keywords":["climate change"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf00466267da5de70/69885c9d0b72e37eac6e51aa/flooding-climate-change.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Justin Worland","jobTitle":"Senior Correspondent","url":"https://time.com/author/justin-worland/"}],"articleSection":"Science","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltf00466267da5de70/69885c9d0b72e37eac6e51aa/flooding-climate-change.jpeg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"flooding climate change","caption":"flooding climate change","creditText":"Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/science/","name":"Science"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/climate-change/","name":"climate change"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3973256/flooding-risk-coastal-cities/","name":"U.S. Flood Risk Could Be Worse Than We Thought"}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"VideoObject","name":"Is Climate Change Causing Extreme Weather?","description":"Is the frequency of extreme weather events a sign that global warming is gaining pace and exceeding predictions? 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