--- title: Space: The Search for Aliens Is a Huge Shot in the Dark description: But we still have to try canonical: https://time.com/3969378/search-for-extraterrestrial-intelligence/ author: Paul Davies article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-07-23T16:19:44.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:58:26.889Z article:section: Ideas og:title: The Search for Aliens Is a Huge Shot in the Dark og:description: But we still have to try og:url: https://time.com/3969378/search-for-extraterrestrial-intelligence/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blte16eb5e69b3c205c/69885ba1cd1bba2b7f6fc57f/earth-blue-marble-apollo-17-1972.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2558 og:image:height: 1439 og:image:alt: Earth Blue Marble Apollo 17 1972 og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: The Search for Aliens Is a Huge Shot in the Dark twitter:description: But we still have to try twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blte16eb5e69b3c205c/69885ba1cd1bba2b7f6fc57f/earth-blue-marble-apollo-17-1972.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # The Search for Aliens Is a Huge Shot in the Dark > Sponsored content. 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It explains how TIME's journalism is made, from the first pitch through the editorial decisions behind a finished story or cover. #### How can I read about how TIME chooses its covers? Inside TIME is the newsletter where TIME's Editor-in-Chief explains cover selection and the editorial reasoning behind major stories. It is free at time.com/newsletters. #### Who is the editor of TIME? Sam Jacobs is TIME's Editor-in-Chief. He writes Inside TIME, a twice-weekly newsletter about the newsroom's reporting and editorial decisions. #### Is Inside TIME free? Yes. Inside TIME is a free newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ## Video: A Year in Space - Ep.1: Leaving Home [Watch (HLS stream): A Year in Space - Ep.1: Leaving Home](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/6ookw4W2.m3u8) (13:31)  _Published 2021-03-11. A Year in Space - Ep.1: Leaving Home_ by [Paul Davies](https://time.com/author/paul-davies/) ## Paul Davies Jul 23, 2015 4:19 PM UTC  Blue Marble, 1972; The original "Blue Marble" was taken on Dec. 7, 1972, by the crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft en route to the Moon at a distance of about 29,000 kilometres (18,000 mi). It shows Africa, Antarctica, and the Arabian Peninsula. Blue Marble, 1972; The original "Blue Marble" was taken on Dec. 7, 1972, by the crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft en route to the Moon at a distance of about 29,000 kilometres (18,000 mi). It shows Africa, Antarctica, and the Arabian Peninsula. NASA by [Paul Davies](https://time.com/author/paul-davies/) ## Paul Davies Jul 23, 2015 4:19 PM UTC An answer to the age-old question of whether or not we are alone in the universe may have come a step closer with the announcement that philanthropist Yuri Milner was pumping [$100 million](http://time.com/3964238/yuri-milner-breakthrough-listen/) into SETI—the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. For 55 years astronomers have been sweeping the skies with radio telescopes in the hope of stumbling across a message from an alien civilization. So far, they have encountered only an eerie silence. But SETI has been hampered by an exceedingly tight budget. Now the program can be enormously ramped up. How likely is it that other civilizations exist? Observations by the NASA satellite Kepler and other instruments have led to the discovery of hundreds of planets around nearby stars. A fraction of them will certainly resemble Earth. Some estimates suggest that the Milky Way alone may harbor billions of earth-like planets. Clearly there is no lack of real estate on which extraterrestrial life might flourish. But just because a planet is habitable doesn’t mean it is inhabited. For a planet to host life, then life has to arise there. How likely is that? The short answer is, nobody knows. In his celebrated treatise _Origin of Species_, Charles Darwin gave a convincing account of how life on Earth has evolved over billions of years from simple microbes to the richness and complexity of the biosphere we observe today. But he pointedly left out how life got started in the first place. “One might as well speculate about the origin of matter,” he once quipped. A century and a half later scientists are still largely in the dark about how non-living matter turns into life. Somehow a complex mix of chemicals was transformed into a primitive organism. If we knew the process that did it, we could have a go at estimating the odds. But you can’t work out the probability of an unknown process. Upbeat assessments of a universe teeming with life are based on little more than wishful thinking. There are many other unknowns, too, such as the chances that a planet with life will evolve intelligence, and if it does, whether it will create technological civilizations. But at least we know the processes involved, namely, Darwinian evolution and social evolution. The probability (or improbability) of the origin of life remains by far the biggest unknown factor in determining whether SETI will ever succeed. Another thorny problem is whether an alien civilization would pick out Earth to beam messages at. A sufficiently advanced technology, even many light years away, could in principle have deduced that there is intelligent life on Earth, for example, by imaging the pyramids of Egypt. But aliens would not know we have radio technology unless they were located within a few dozen light years of Earth, because that’s as far as our own radio signals have traveled. It would make no sense for them to message us until they knew we were on the air. And even SETI optimists think there is scant chance of a civilization located that close. But we don’t have to actually receive a directed message to deduce that we are not alone in the universe. Any signature of alien technology would settle that. One idea championed by Gregory Benford at UC Irvine, is to look for beacons. Just as a lighthouse sweeps the horizon for the benefit of anyone who might be out there, so a super-civilization (perhaps one that long ago vanished) may have built a radio or optical beacon to sweep the plane of the Milky Way. Detecting such a source requires a different search strategy. Traditionally, SETI astronomers hop from star to star listening for “narrow band” signals—those transmitted continuously at a fixed frequency, like terrestrial radio and TV channels. By contrast, a beacon would be a transient event—perhaps just a brief pulse or a series of pulses—that might repeat months or years later when the beam came around again. To spot it, astronomers would need to direct their instruments on the same patch of sky for months or years, which is an expensive undertaking. Whatever strategy is used, searching for ET is still a huge shot in the dark. There may be no intelligent life out there, or even life of any sort. But to not even try would be hugely disappointing. Part of what makes us human is our sense of curiosity and adventure, and even the act of looking is a valuable exercise. As Frank Drake, the astronomer who began SETI on a shoestring budget in 1960, expresses it, SETI is really a search for ourselves, who we are and how we fit into the great cosmic scheme of things. ## Transcript [ MUSIC ] It is a long road and it is very hard. I've seen him behind the scenes. I've seen the hard work he's put in, and here we are, and this is the moment. And so, it can't not Lot pull you in and a joke or two here and there. [ MUSIC ] I do sometimes dream of being in space. Sometimes I'll wake up and I'll tell Miko, I had this dream I was launching a space shuttle or a space station or sometimes there are people with me. Like she's been with me in my dreams, my kids have. But in reality, while I'm up there most of humanity is 250 miles below you. If anything goes wrong on earth. You're not coming home [ MUSIC ] [ INAUDIBLE ] How's it going for you now? It's actually going pretty good. [ MUSIC ] In float suit Let me know if you're good to stay in for another hour. Got my [ UNKNOWN ] [ MUSIC ] For decades human beings as a whole and Americans in particular have been talking about going to Mars. Mars. As long ago as 1969, after the Apollo 11 moon landing, people were predicting Americans would be on Mars by 1975. It has been a dream deferred. For half a century. [ MUSIC ] Getting to Mars requires multiple systems in Nasa to be working at once. The system that's the most fragile and destructible of all, however, is the human body. It's the one we didn't invent. It's the one we're stuck with. [ MUSIC ] If we plan to get to Mars, we have to figure out how to make that biological machine survive in a place it was not built to survive. [ MUSIC ] Scott Kelly. Has been working toward this mission his entire career. He's been working toward this mission his entire life in some respects. [ MUSIC ] He knows what it's like to have a football field size piece of $ 100 billion infrastructure. In his control and now he is going back for one year to run one of the most important bio- medical studies NASA has ever run [ MUSIC ] Yeah, the way he misses the people, and then the weather. It's kinda like. Well, it's going outside. There's no sun on your face. You never feel this on my feet, this fire. You never feel this cold breeze. It's always exactly the same. So I had this Texans hat. And it was completely faded and stained and it was the best hat ever and then I lost them. So, I went and I bought two of the exact same hat. This one's gonna go to Cuz I stand with me. But then I took the other one, and I strewed him to the fence over there. And he's going to be exposed to the Houston weather for a year. And he's going to turn back into old smokey for me when I get home. You're gonna come home, and a year later, you're gonna see earth changed something too. I hope not too much. [ LAUGH ] We'll figure it out. When the first time like I actually had an interaction with you at work you came in. And I thought. It was so weird to me now to think of. You thought it was my brother? I couldn't tell the difference between the two of you which is weird to me now. Because I'm like I can tell When you; re walking away I know exactly who's who. [ MUSIC ] Yeah, we used to look, I guess, very much alike. To some extent still, for people who don't know us. And my mother used to dress us the same. Now look at these old pictures with Orange shorts, and a striped orange shirt, and a bow tie. [ MUSIC ] When we were little we had our own secret language. We did almost everything together, and I remember laying in bed one time in the morning, and talking to my brother about how we were gonna build an airplane in the back yard. We just said at five or six years old we figured we could do that. Like we had the skill to do this. Obviously, we didn't. We didn't get very far with the airplane or later with the spaceship. [ MUSIC ] I think twins tend to be a little bit different. I think their relationship is different than just siblings. [ MUSIC ] You okay? Yep. [ MUSIC ] So, this thing is not meant to walk around in. [ LAUGH ] No. NASA's doing kind of a comparative study between my brother Mark and I, since we're identical twins. I call him much more when I'm in space than I do on earth. And it's because you just feel like you're so far away, you need to try to maintain some kind of connection. I'll be probably more excited for him than anybody else. I've flown four flights. This'll be his fourth flight. For my mom's passed away, but for my dad to have gone through this whole experience eight times now, that's a lot. [ MUSIC ] Throughout history people have done things that are risky. So even though it is a risky thing to be doing, and I think it's a lot more risky than some people might think, it, in my mind, is worth it even if the unfortunate And tragic thing was to happen to myself and my crew mates, I still think it's worth it. Being part of something that you feel is larger than yourself [ MUSIC ] [ INAUDIBLE ] it's going to be a long year for I'll tell you that. Dad, I can call you from space and harass you, just as much as I can harass you over the phone here. You don't have to worry. Okay. Thank you. [ LAUGH ] Got your tunes, your headphones. Uh- huh. [ MUSIC ] [ LAUGH ] That was funny. Oh. Yep. What did you say this morning that was funny? And I told you don't say that, yay. God. It would. What was I talking about. Oh, when you said goodbye, dad. Goodbye, dad. I'm going to miss your silky smoothness. Should I show you how the remote works? I think I got it now, I think I got it. We're on our own. I'm going to jump in the shower. Real quick. Okay. [ MUSIC ] [ NOISE ] Excuse me everybody! Can we be really quiet for a sound test real quick? Sound check. [ MUSIC ] Hello Scott And Gabby and I just wanted to say Bon Voyage. How do you say that? Bon Voyage. And you know we know you only have a couple of days in the US and then you are gone for I don't know like five years or something. Do you know what it is? How long? One year in space. Hey dad. I just want you to know that I'm really gonna miss you. You made so many sacrifices over the years for Charlotte and I. You helped me become the person I am today. Hi Dad, I'd like to wish you good luck on your trip. It's exciting and you're going to be working, but remember to take in the view. I love you, Daddy. [ INAUDIBLE ] People ask me what am I going to do, and I always just say, you know, I'm going to just see how far love travels. You want to know how long a year is. It's 31. Six million seconds. It will be 31. 6 million times you're on my mind. I said to my brother I'll be in space and flying all the way around the sun one lap at a year. And he's like so will I. The rest of us will be doing the same thing. On spaceship Earth. I get the question, how does it feel to be the daughter of an astronaut. You know he's been an astronaut since I was one year's old, I wouldn't know anything else. I can't compare it to anything else, so everybody's like yeah it's so cool, your dad's an astronaut he's going to space for a year. And for me, I'm like, yeah. He's my dad. [ LAUGH ] You know? He's my dorky dad. The one who gets mad at me if I don't do my home work, or if I don't come home on time. [ LAUGH ] He's still my dad, no matter what his job is. And And he's a great one at that. 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