Some parts of California now suffering from drought may soon be relieved, thanks to El Niño-related precipitation expected in the coming months, according to new government forecasts. But the precipitation is unlikely to provide enough relief to the mountain regions that provide most of the water for agriculture and consumers throughout the state.
The forecast, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows “drought removal likely” in a small swath of the southeastern part of California by October 31. NOAA meteorologists said last week that there’s a 90% chance of El Niño continuing through winter and an 80% chance of it persisting through early spring. If it does, the drought-free area in California could expand along the coast and in the southern part of the state, according to NOAA climate prediction center meteorologist Matthew Rosencrantz.
A small area in the Southeastern part of California, mapped in green, is likely to see drought end by October.Courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction CenterA small area in the Southeastern part of California, mapped in green, is likely to see drought end by October.Courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction Center
But relief in those regions will do little to alleviate most of the drought’s worst effects. Most of the water used for consumer consumption and in agriculture comes from reservoirs in the north of the state, and forecasts don’t show those areas receiving a boost in precipitation. In fact, the state’s Department of Water Resources says that in Northern and Central California there’s “almost no correlation between precipitation and El Niño.”
“For northern California and the reservoirs, there’s not much certainty” of relief, says Rosencrantz. “Local agriculture, non-irrigation agriculture, could have a benefit this winter, but for anybody that relies on the aqueducts that come through central California there’s not enough certainty.”
Outside of California, forecasts show the drought expanding, particularly in the north of the country. Montana and Idaho are both expected to see more area affected by the drought in coming months. Puerto Rico, which is already suffering a severe drought, is also expected to see even drier coming months. El Niño is likely at the root of these changes, says Rosencrantz. In addition to increasing precipitation in the Southwest, the climate phenomenon leads to dry spells in northern regions.
See How California Is Using Its Diminishing Water Resources
The Los Angeles Aqueduct Cascades, which bring water 223 miles from the Owens River in the eastern Sierra Nevada mountains, and 137 miles from the Haiwee Reservoir, are a major source of water for Los Angeles. Seen here in Sylmar, Calif. on May 4, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersThe Los Angeles Aqueduct Cascades are seen in Sylmar, Calif. on May 4, 2015. California's snowpack, which generally provides about a third of the state's water, is at its lowest level on record. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersWith the country's most populous state entering the fourth year of a devastating drought, Governor Jerry Brown has ordered an overall 25 percent cut in urban water use though the first statewide mandatory reductions in California's history. The suppliers with the highest per capita water use would have to accept a 36 percent cut. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersA tractor ploughs a field next to a canal in Los Banos, Calif. on May 5, 2015. California water regulators on Tuesday adopted the state's first rules for mandatory cutbacks in urban water use as the region's catastrophic drought enters its fourth year. However, the state's massive agricultural sector, which the Public Policy Institute of California says uses 80 percent of human-related consumption, has been exempted from cutbacks.Lucy Nicholson—ReutersA worker walks through farm fields in Los Banos, Calif. on May 5, 2015. Urban users will be hardest hit, even though they account for only 20 percent of state water consumption.Lucy Nicholson—ReutersApproximately 9 million acres of farmland in California are irrigated, representing roughly 80% of all human water use. But, farm production and food processing only generate about 2% of California’s gross state product, down from about 5% in the early 1960s.Lucy Nicholson—Reuters"In the Central Valley, where most agricultural water use occurs, the failure to manage groundwater sustainably limits its availability as a drought reserve. The increase in perennial crops—which need to be watered every year—has made the region even more vulnerable," the Public Policy Institute of California states. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersCentral Valley farmers have witnessed land sinking by as much as 3 feet, San Francisco Gate reports, as water agencies tap underground reservoirs at unprecedented depths. Water pours into a canal in Los Banos, Calif., May 5, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersLivestock products, including meat, dairy and eggs, account for more than a quarter of California's agricultural sector, a $12.5 billion industry, according to the USDA. Cattle are among the most water-hungry livestock, consuming an average of106 gallons per pound of beef. Cattle are seen at Harris Ranch in Coalinga, Calif. on May 5, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersCalifornia's planting of staple crops such as cotton, corn, oats, barley, wheat, rice, and sunflowers will total 1.72 million acres in 2015, down from 1.90 million acres in 2014, according to data from the National Drought Mitigation Center. A wheat field is seen in Los Banos, Calif. May 5, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersA water protest sign is seen in Los Banos, California, United States May 5, 2015. Central Valley counties suffer some of the highest unemployment rates in the state, topping out at more than 20% in Colusa County, according to the state's Legislative Analyst's Office.Lucy Nicholson—Reuters
