--- title: Psychology: How to Make Better Decisions By Thinking Differently description: Best decisions often focus on similarities instead of differences canonical: https://time.com/3940175/making-better-decisions/ author: Shane Parrish article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-07-03T11:00:42.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T07:49:32.494Z article:section: Ideas og:title: How You Can Counter the Inside View and Make Better Decisions og:description: Best decisions often focus on similarities instead of differences og:url: https://time.com/3940175/making-better-decisions/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb6ea73b34779cd83/698858e60b72e37b3e6e4b5a/brain-side-view.jpg?branch=production&width=338&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 338 og:image:height: 190 og:image:alt: brain-background og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: How You Can Counter the Inside View and Make Better Decisions twitter:description: Best decisions often focus on similarities instead of differences twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb6ea73b34779cd83/698858e60b72e37b3e6e4b5a/brain-side-view.jpg?branch=production&width=338&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # How You Can Counter the Inside View and Make Better Decisions > Sponsored content. 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A paid TIME subscription is separate and available at time.com/subscribe-agent. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-inside-2026q3/newsletters?i=13ca3c88-0a4c-40a7-86b5-cfe595c135f3&cr=time-nl-inside-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Inside The Operating Room During Awake Surgery [Watch (HLS stream): Inside The Operating Room During Awake Surgery](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/lyJruvm0.m3u8) (4:57)  _Published 2015-03-02. Brittany Capone is having a benign tumor removed from her brain and because it is so close to her speech center, surgeons will keep her awake and talk to her during the procedure_ by [Shane Parrish](https://time.com/author/shane-parrish/) ## Shane Parrish Jul 3, 2015 11:00 AM UTC  Floating brain on green background Floating brain on green background Getty Images by [Shane Parrish](https://time.com/author/shane-parrish/) ## Shane Parrish Jul 3, 2015 11:00 AM UTC In his book [_Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition_](http://a-fwd.com/es=farstrblo068-21&it=farstrblo0a-21&fr=farstrblo08-21&de=farstrblo07-21&uk=farstrblo-21&ca=farst-20&com=farnamstreet-20&asin-es=1422187381&asin-it=1422187381&asin-fr=1422187381&asin-de=1422187381&asin-uk=1422187381&asin-ca=1422187381&asin-com=1422187381), Michael Mauboussin discusses how we can “fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls.” One of those routines is the inside view, which we’re going to talk about in this article but first let’s get a bit of context. --- > “” --- We don’t spend enough time thinking and [learning from the process](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2013/03/what-matters-more-in-decisions-analysis-or-process/). Generally we’re pretty ambivalent about the process by which we make decisions. --- > “” --- That reminds me of what Daniel Kahneman wrote in [Thinking, Fast and Slow](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0374533555/ref=as%5Fli%5Fqf%5Fsp%5Fasin%5Fil%5Ftl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0374533555&linkCode=as2&tag=farnamstreet-20&linkId=BQBHKJ3ADCN56FZX): --- > “” --- So we’re not really gathering information as much as trying to satisfice our existing intuition. The very thing a good decision process should help root out. \*\*\* **Ego Induced Blindness** One prevalent error we make is that we tend to favour the inside view over the outside view. --- > “” --- When the inside view is more positive than the outside view you effectively have a base rate argument. You’re saying (knowingly or, more likely, unknowingly) that [this time is different](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/01/this-time-is-different/). Our brains are all too happy to help us construct this argument. Mauboussin argues that we embrace the inside view for a few primary reasons. First, we’re optimistic by nature. Second, is the “illusion of optimism” (we see our future as brighter than that of others). Finally, is the illusion of control (we think that [chance events are subject to our control](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/02/fooled-by-randomness/)). One interesting point is that while we’re bad at looking at the outside view when it comes to ourselves, we’re better at it when it comes to other people. --- > “” --- So it’s mostly ego. I’m better than the people tackling this problem before me. We see the differences between situations and use those as rationalizations as to why things are different this time. Consider [this](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/01/this-time-is-different/): --- > “” --- \*\*\* **How to Incorporate the Outside View into your Decisions** In [Think Twice](http://a-fwd.com/es=farstrblo068-21&it=farstrblo0a-21&fr=farstrblo08-21&de=farstrblo07-21&uk=farstrblo-21&ca=farst-20&com=farnamstreet-20&asin-es=1422187381&asin-it=1422187381&asin-fr=1422187381&asin-de=1422187381&asin-uk=1422187381&asin-ca=1422187381&asin-com=1422187381), Mauboussin distills [the work of Kahneman and Tversky](http://people.hss.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf) into four steps and adds some commentary. **1\. Select a Reference Class** --- > “” --- **2\. Assess the distribution of outcomes.** --- > “” --- **3\. Make a prediction.** --- > “” --- **4\. Assess the reliability of your prediction and fine-tune.** --- > “” --- \*\*\* The main lesson we can take from this is that we tend to focus on what’s different whereas the best decisions often focus on just the opposite: what’s the same. While this situation seems a little different, it’s almost always the same. As Charlie Munger has said: “if you notice, the plots are very similar. The same plot comes back time after time.” Particulars may vary but, unless those particulars are the variables that govern the outcome of the situation, the pattern remains. If we’re going to focus on what’s different rather than what’s the same, you’d best be sure the variables you’re clinging to matter. **_This piece originally appeared on_** [**_Farnam Street_**](https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/05/inside-view-michael-mauboussin/)**_._** **Join over 60,000 readers and get a free weekly update via email** [**here**](http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/newsletter/)**.** ## Transcript Are you pretty comfortable dear? The first time I found out I had a tumor, I was 20. Where do you live dear? I would go get something and when I got there, I wouldn't know what I was going to get. Do you know where you are? I couldn't remember things good, so I was nervous. So that it's crazy. [ MUSIC ] I just want water. I first heard about the surgery, where I would have to be awake, about a month ago. It's not a matter of being awake or not. It's just the whole thing about having surgery of the brain period, is going to be, like, the hardest thing. Very nervous. I'm a nervous guy. [ LAUGH ] It's going to be the longest four hours of our life. We just hope this all turns out good, that's all. No. You did not get me a teddy bear. What am I going to do with this thing? [ LAUGH ] [ INAUDIBLE ] [ APPLAUSE ] [ LAUGH ] Brit baby. What? A few more hours it'll be all over. Thank god, I'm tired. So how do you guys all feel? We want it to be over. That's all. If they would let me scrub up, I would love to come in the operating room. I would love it. The idea is to take out the tumor and leave the brains behind. [ MUSIC ] It's sort of a misnomer. You're not awake for the entire procedure. For most of the surgery, you're gonna be quite deeply sedated so that you won't be aware [ CROSSTALK ] It's not terribly traumatic for patients. I always reassure them that we're gonna sedate them. We're not gonna put them to sleep except during the opening and the closing. You're going to be really comfortable. You're going to be surprised. One of the most important people in the room is anesthesiologists. No smiling, no laughing. If you go to sleep smiling you wake up smiling. [ LAUGH ] The art part of this is tailoring those medications to the point where the patient is sufficiently sedated that they tolerate the procedure. Timeout, this is. Brittany Capone, she has a left posterior temporal tumor. Everybody agree we're on the left side? Yup. [ MUSIC ] [ INAUDIBLE ] Left sided tumors we we're worried about speech. And it includes both motor speech and receptive speech. Name a word that starts with B. Brittany. Brittany, there ya go. You can hear the sort of a cadence the patient gets into. And if you notice any hesitancy we can, we could hear it instantaneously. Name something you paint with. Paint brush. That's. The most memorable ones now are, are the, the patients who, who carry on interesting conversations with us during surgery. No fennel. I like fennel too. The whole thing is pretty surreal actually. But reassuring all that's reassuring to us. What time is it? It's ten o'clock. You got a date? You got a date? Do I get to see the tumor? No. Not really. It's going to be hard for you to see it. Are you going to put me back to sleep? Very soon, yes. After the scalp is closed and the head is bandaged, we turn off all the medication. And the patient will wake up. Brittany. Brittany. Brittany. Can you open your eyes? Brittany? It's really, quite amazing how quickly they wake up and how bright and alert they are, after several hours of neuro surgery. Show me your teeth. Big smile. Smile, smile, smile. Good. Stick out your tongue. Good. Craniotomy is not a terribly painful operation. It's not like a chest surgery or an abdominal surgery. Can you lift this leg up? The next day you're walking on the ward after a craniotomy. Try to touch my hand here. There's just not much to hurt in the brain. That's the good thing. Today's a sunny day in New York city. [ MUSIC ] Today is a sunny day in New York City. Mmhm. 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