The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to be stronger and last longer in the Northern Hemisphere than originally anticipated, U.S. weather forecasters said Thursday — raising the possibility that it could bring much-needed rain to drought-stricken California.
The cyclical weather event has an 80% chance of continuing in the Northern Hemisphere through the end of the year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). El Niño usually lasts several years, beginning with warming in the Pacific Ocean and affecting weather patterns across the globe.
“We’ve seen continued evolution toward a stronger event,” NOAA official Mike Halpert told TIME. “Last month we were calling it weak, now we’re calling it borderline weak to moderate.”
The new prediction make it likelier that El Niño could provide California some relief from its devastating, years-long drought. Five out of six times there’s been a strong El Niño, Northern California has been wetter than average. But forecasters hesitated to say for certain whether it would last long enough to make a difference. “While that’s certainly on the table as a possible outcome we just don’t have enough confidence,” Halpert said.
Australian authorities predicted a “substantial” El Niño event earlier this week. But while a strong El Niño has the potential to improve drought conditions in the U.S. the opposite is true in Australia. Authorities worry that unusual weather patterns caused by the phenomenon would exacerbate the country’s own severe drought with below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures.
“Stronger El Niños interrupt tropical rainfalls. That rain fall shifts and Indonesia and Austrailia become drier than average,” explained Halpert. “They’re not looking forward to El Niño shutting the tap off.”
See How California Is Using Its Diminishing Water Resources
The Los Angeles Aqueduct Cascades, which bring water 223 miles from the Owens River in the eastern Sierra Nevada mountains, and 137 miles from the Haiwee Reservoir, are a major source of water for Los Angeles. Seen here in Sylmar, Calif. on May 4, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersThe Los Angeles Aqueduct Cascades are seen in Sylmar, Calif. on May 4, 2015. California's snowpack, which generally provides about a third of the state's water, is at its lowest level on record. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersWith the country's most populous state entering the fourth year of a devastating drought, Governor Jerry Brown has ordered an overall 25 percent cut in urban water use though the first statewide mandatory reductions in California's history. The suppliers with the highest per capita water use would have to accept a 36 percent cut. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersA tractor ploughs a field next to a canal in Los Banos, Calif. on May 5, 2015. California water regulators on Tuesday adopted the state's first rules for mandatory cutbacks in urban water use as the region's catastrophic drought enters its fourth year. However, the state's massive agricultural sector, which the Public Policy Institute of California says uses 80 percent of human-related consumption, has been exempted from cutbacks.Lucy Nicholson—ReutersA worker walks through farm fields in Los Banos, Calif. on May 5, 2015. Urban users will be hardest hit, even though they account for only 20 percent of state water consumption.Lucy Nicholson—ReutersApproximately 9 million acres of farmland in California are irrigated, representing roughly 80% of all human water use. But, farm production and food processing only generate about 2% of California’s gross state product, down from about 5% in the early 1960s.Lucy Nicholson—Reuters"In the Central Valley, where most agricultural water use occurs, the failure to manage groundwater sustainably limits its availability as a drought reserve. The increase in perennial crops—which need to be watered every year—has made the region even more vulnerable," the Public Policy Institute of California states. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersCentral Valley farmers have witnessed land sinking by as much as 3 feet, San Francisco Gate reports, as water agencies tap underground reservoirs at unprecedented depths. Water pours into a canal in Los Banos, Calif., May 5, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersLivestock products, including meat, dairy and eggs, account for more than a quarter of California's agricultural sector, a $12.5 billion industry, according to the USDA. Cattle are among the most water-hungry livestock, consuming an average of106 gallons per pound of beef. Cattle are seen at Harris Ranch in Coalinga, Calif. on May 5, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersCalifornia's planting of staple crops such as cotton, corn, oats, barley, wheat, rice, and sunflowers will total 1.72 million acres in 2015, down from 1.90 million acres in 2014, according to data from the National Drought Mitigation Center. A wheat field is seen in Los Banos, Calif. May 5, 2015. Lucy Nicholson—ReutersA water protest sign is seen in Los Banos, California, United States May 5, 2015. Central Valley counties suffer some of the highest unemployment rates in the state, topping out at more than 20% in Colusa County, according to the state's Legislative Analyst's Office.Lucy Nicholson—Reuters
