Where Will the Next Big Earthquake Hit?

3 minute read

For years, seismic experts predicted that a big earthquake would hit the Himalayan region between India and Nepal.

The Himalayas are being pushed upwards at the rate of about one centimeter a year as the Indian subcontinent smashes against the Eurasian plate— a process that has been ongoing for millions for years. As the plates thrust against each other huge amounts of pressure builds up until it releases as an earthquake.

The region experiences a magnitude-8 earthquake approximately every 75 years, with the last in 1934. It killed about 10,000 people.

Though it’s impossible to predict exactly when or where big earthquakes will happen, areas where seismic activity meet underdevelopment and poverty are prone to the most devastation.

“In several places, the higher seismic risk overlaps with places with poor construction,” Hari Kumar, South Asia regional coordinator for GeoHazards International in Delhi, told TIME. GeoHazards is a non-government organization that helps to reduce earthquake-risk in developing countries.

The consequences of substandard building and a lack of earthquake preparedness were seen in devastating force in Saturday’s 7.8 magnitude earthquake near Kathmandu. Scores of structures collapsed and more than 3,600 lives were lost.

Kumar warns that other cities and towns in Nepal, as well as several in India, Pakistan and Bhutan, are at high risk of a similar disaster due to the activity of the tectonic faults underneath them and their lack of preparation.

“It is not as though Nepal didn’t know about the problem, but that it was so huge they didn’t know where to start,” Kumar says, adding that the country lacked the resources and technical expertise to make existing buildings resistant to earthquakes (a process known as seismic retrofitting). “The government was working against time.”

According to Brian Tucker, the president of GeoHazards, the U.S., New Zealand, Japan, Turkey (particularly Istanbul) and Chile are all high-risk countries where tectonic plates are under strain but they have taken steps to prepare buildings and educate the people in order to mitigate the consequences of a big quake.

“Places you would really shudder to think what would happen are Tehran, Iran; Karachi, Pakistan; Padang, Indonesia and Lima, Peru,” he tells TIME. “If you ask me to place a bet on where the next big earthquake would be, the strongest evidence is offshore Sumatra.”

In 2004, a 9.3 magnitude earthquake struck 100 miles off the northwest tip of Sumatra, Indonesia generating a huge tsunami that killed some 230,000 people and cause widespread devastation.

“Padang is much smaller than Kathmandu so it wouldn’t create the same economic or political chaos that one in Tehran, Karachi or Istanbul would cause,” he said, but he stressed that an earthquake there could trigger a tsunami with similar devastating consequences.

Rapid migration from rural areas to cities worldwide has meant buildings in many cities with poor economies have sprung up quickly to accommodate the new influx of people.

“They don’t have resources to rebuild all the schools, hospitals, houses and apartments according to good building practice,” says Tucker.

Assessing the vulnerability of buildings such as schools and hospitals in these places will go a long way in preventing huge human and financial costs when a big quake strikes, he says. But “We need to create mechanisms to reward and incentivize the private sector to adhere to building codes.”

Read next: Here Are Six Ways you Can Give to Nepal Earthquake Relief

Death Toll Climbs as Nepal Digs Out After Massive Quake

Death toll passes 2,300 as major aftershocks continue to rock Nepal
A monk inspects the damage at Nepalese heritage site Syambhunaath Stupa, also known as monkey temple, after a powerful earthquake struck Nepal, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015. Narendra Shrestha—EPA
Rescue workers remove debris as they search for victims of earthquake in Bhaktapur near Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.
Rescue workers remove debris as they search for victims of earthquake in Bhaktapur near Kathmandu on April 26, 2015. Niranjan Shrestha—AP
Nepalese policemen clear the debris at Basantapur Durbar Square, damaged in Saturday's earthquake, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.
Nepalese policemen clear the debris at Basantapur Durbar Square, damaged in Saturday's earthquake, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.Bernat Armangue—AP
Nepalese rescue personnel help a trapped earthquake survivor, center right, as his friend lies dead next to him in Swyambhu, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.
Nepalese rescue personnel help a trapped earthquake survivor, center right, as his friend lies dead next to him in Swayambhu, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.Prakash Mathema—AFP/Getty Images
Injured people receive treatment at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Maharajgunj, Kathmandu, on April 26, 2015, one day after a massive earthquake hit Nepal.
Injured people receive treatment at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Maharajgunj, Kathmandu, on April 26, 2015, one day after a massive earthquake hit Nepal.Kishor Sharma for TIME
Bodies kept for identification at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Maharajgunj, Kathmandu, on April 26, 2015.
Bodies kept for identification at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Maharajgunj, Kathmandu, on April 26, 2015.Kishor Sharma for TIME
A woman weeps during the cremation of a victim of Saturdayís earthquake, at the Pashupatinath temple, on the banks of Bagmati river, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.
A woman weeps during the cremation of a victim of Saturday's earthquake, at the Pashupatinath temple, on the banks of Bagmati river, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.Bernat Armangue—AP
Flames rise from burning funeral pyres during the cremation of victims of Saturday's earthquake, at the Pashupatinath temple on the banks of Bagmati river, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.
Flames rise from burning funeral pyres during the cremation of victims of Saturday's earthquake, at the Pashupatinath temple on the banks of Bagmati river, in Kathmandu on April 26, 2015.Bernat Armangue—AP
People search for family members trapped inside collapsed houses a day after an earthquake in People search for family members trapped inside collapsed houses a day after an earthquake in Bhaktapur on April 26, 2015.
People search for family members trapped inside collapsed houses a day after an earthquake in Bhaktapur, Nepal on April 26, 2015.Navesh Chitrakar—Reuters
People at the site of the collapsed Dharahara Tower, which fell in the earthquake that hit outside Kathmandu, Nepal, on April 25, 2015.
People at the site of the collapsed Dharahara Tower, which fell in the earthquake that hit outside Kathmandu on April 25, 2015.Kishor Sharma for TIME
People gathered at Tundikhel, an open ground in central Kathmandu, Nepal, on April 25, 2015. Many families spent their nights there in fear of aftershocks.
People gathered at Tundikhel, an open ground in central Kathmandu on April 25, 2015. Many families spent their nights there in fear of aftershocks.Kishor Sharma for TIME

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Write to Helen Regan at helen.regan@timeasia.com