Yemen Civil War on the Cards as Houthi Rebels Move South

March 25, 2015 5:19 PM EDT

Shi‘ite rebel militias forced Yemen’s President to flee the country as they advanced on the southern port city of Aden on Wednesday, in a move that threatens to tip the country into full-scale civil war.

Yemen’s U.S.-backed President Abdel Rabbo Mansour Hadi fled Aden by boat on Wednesday, according to officials cited by the Associated Press. The state television network, now controlled by the Houthi rebels who seized control of the capital in September, announced a $100,000 bounty for Hadi’s capture.

The Houthis are mostly members of a Shi‘ite sect from the country’s north, and their decision to stage an offensive into the south is likely to further inflame tensions between the two regions, which in turn could also provide a recruiting boon for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the extremist group’s Yemen-based affiliate.

“As soon as the Houthis declare victory, then the real fighting will start, which is guerilla resistance across the south,” said Abdul-Ghani al-Iryani, a Yemeni political analyst in the capital, Sana‘a. “There are big questions that pertain to the survival of Yemen as a unified state.”

The Houthis stormed Sana‘a in September 2014, seeking greater representation in Hadi’s government. The President resigned in January and later fled to Aden to declare a rival government. The rebels are now allied with army units loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who stepped down in 2011 following a pro-democracy uprising in 2011, but was allowed to remain in the country. Late on Wednesday, gunfire could reportedly be heard across the city of Aden as the rebel fighters sought to grain ground there.

Yemen’s Tumultuous History in 12 Pictures

Civil War In Yemen In 1962 — In 1962, a coup ousted the monarchy ruling North Yemen and spawned a devastating civil war between the newly established Yemen Arab Republic and royalist forces. The conflict, which drew Egypt in on the side of the republicans against the Saudi-backed royalists, lasted through the end of the decadeGery Gerard—Paris Match/Getty Images

An insurgency known as the “Aden Emergency” emerges after a grenade is thrown at a group of British military officers in a part of southern Yemen, which was still a British protectorate. — As conflict raged in the north, leftist groups in the south began to push for independence from Britain, which had controlled the port city of Aden and its surroundings since the mid-19th century. A grenade attack on British officers in December 1963 marked the beginning of an insurgency against the British known as the Aden EmergencyTerry Fincher—Getty Images

Yemen Aden British Troop Withdrawal — Under siege from pro-independence groups, the British agreed to a transfer of power and withdrew in 1967, paving the way for the communist-run People’s Republic of South YemenAP

Ali Abdullah Saleh;Ali Salem Al Baidh — North and South Yemen finally overcame internal turmoil and occasional border clashes to agree on a unity deal in 1989. The merger the following year established the Republic of Yemen under the North’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh (right), who would remain in power until 2012 .Thomas Hartwell—The LIFE Images Collection/Getty Images

Fights Between North And South Yemen In Yemen On May 17, 1994. — Peace between both sides would not hold. In 1993, Vice President al-Bayd left Sana’a for Aden in the south, and by the following year the two sides’ armed forces, which had yet to be merged, were at war. The North eventually defeated southern forces, restoring calm after months of violence that left thousands deadLaurent Van Der Stockt—Getty Images

Al-Qaeda-linked militants bomb the U.S.S. Cole in the port of Aden, killing 17 sailors. A government crackdown on al-Qaeda cells that year would fuel a war between the government and Sunni extremists that would intensify after Saleh’s ouster. — A suicide bomb attack on the USS Cole in Aden, Yemen killed 17 U.S. sailors on Oct. 12, 2000, and was claimed by Al-Qaeda. Despite President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s pledge to support America's fight on terrorism, the group would eventually gain a strong foothold in the country. Today, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is one of the terror network's most powerful affiliates and controls swathes of territory in southern YemenU.S. Navy—Getty Images

Protesters march during an anti-government demonstration in Radfan, a district in the southern Yemeni province of Lahej — Large-scale anti-government protests broke out in Jan. 2011 across the country in the wake of the ouster of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, eventually prompting President Ali Abdullah Saleh to declare that he would not run for reelection in 2013Reuters

Government forces fire on protesters, killing 52 and escalating violence. — Snowballing demonstrations turned deadly on March 18, 2011 when unidentified gunmen opened fire on protesters, killing roughly 50 people. President Ali Abdullah Saleh, denying the attackers were government forces, declared a state of emergency, heralding a new, more violent phase in the protests that devolved at times into tribal clashesMuhammed Muheisen—AP

A blast at the presidential compound badly burns President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh travels to Saudi Arabia for treatment, but ultimately returns to his post. — An explosion at the presidential palace on June 3, 2011, badly burned President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who left for Saudi Arabia for treatment but, to the dismay of opposition activists, returned to Sana'a in September Muhammed Muheisen—AP

After agreeing to an internationally brokered deal to transfer power to his vice president, Saleh resigns and hands power to Abd-Rabbu Mansur al-Hadi. — The embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned on Feb. 27, 2012, after agreeing to an internationally-brokered deal to transition power to his deputy Abd-Rabbo Mansour HadiHani Mohammed—AP

The Houthis, an insurgency comprising members of the Shi’ite Zaidi minority, take control of Sana’a after years of clashes with government forces in the north. — The Houthis, an insurgency comprising members of the Shi’ite Zaidi minority, took control of Sana'a on Sept. 21, 2014, after years of clashes with government forces in the north. The group, which allowed President Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi to remain at his post, gained wider traction as self-proclaimed reformers, capitalizing on dissatisfaction with the poor economic and security situations under Hadi’s U.S.-backed governmentMohammed Hamoud—Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Hadi submits his resignation as power-sharing negotiations with the Houthis crumble. — President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi submitted his resignation on Jan. 22 after negotiations on a power-sharing agreement with the Houthis appeared to fall through, leaving the fate of the country unclearEPA

The worsening violence in Yemen’s south could also turn into a wider regional conflict. Saudi Arabia moved heavy military equipment to its border with Yemen this week, perhaps out of concern that its neighbor might fall under the influence of Iran, the regional Shi‘ite powerhouse which has reportedly been arming and funding the rebels. Hadi’s government has also appealed for military intervention by other Arab states. The Arab league is set to discuss the plea on Thursday.

The offensive in the south will also empower extremist groups there, analysts say. AQAP, a sworn enemy of the Houthis, which controls territory there, is likely to position itself as the vanguard of resistance to the Houthi presence. Sunni tribes in southern Yemen, who argue that they have been marginalized by the capital since the unification of north and south Yemen in 1990, may be tempted to join the group’s ranks. “AQAP has been pushing a very sectarian narrative. It helps them do recruiting along sectarian lines,” said Adam Baron, a Yemen analyst and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign relations.

That doesn’t bode well for the wider world, either. AQAP is among al-Qaeda’s most lethal franchises, and claimed responsibility in January for the deadly attack on the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. As a result, the Yemeni affiliate has been a recurring target for the U.S. military and foreign intelligence operations, including unmanned drone strikes that have killed civilians, a source of resentment among Yemenis. But the U.S. forces won’t be able to use Yemen as a launchpad for counterterrorism operations any more; Washington evacuated all its personnel from the country on March 21 as conditions deteriorated. That leaves few obstacles to hinder AQAP’s growth.

“All the ingredients are there on the ground for al-Qaeda to grow and flourish and recruit,” said Nadwa al-Dawsari, a Yemeni conflict analyst. “They will find a lot of recruits among frustrated southern people, southern youths, southern tribes. It’ll get ugly.”

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Yemen on the Brink of All-Out War as Rebels Move South

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