--- title: Obama’s Nuclear Deal Could Mean War with Iran description: Inking this accord increases the chances that Israel and the United States take military action against Iran to stop its nuclear program. canonical: https://time.com/3742725/us-iran-nuclear-deal-war/ author: Gabriel Scheinmann article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2015-03-12T18:42:32.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-05-11T05:05:06.028Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Obama’s Nuclear Deal Could Mean War og:description: It increases the chance that Israel and the United States take military action. og:url: https://time.com/3742725/us-iran-nuclear-deal-war/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt70f9129e86d989f7/698783693c16394e044523d3/obama2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: US President Barack Obama pauses while speaking at Georgia Tech on March 10, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Obama’s Nuclear Deal Could Mean War twitter:description: It increases the chance that Israel and the United States take military action. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt70f9129e86d989f7/698783693c16394e044523d3/obama2.jpg?branch=production&width=3840&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Obama’s Nuclear Deal Could Mean War by [Gabriel Scheinmann](https://time.com/author/gabriel-scheinmann/) ## Gabriel Scheinmann Mar 12, 2015 6:42 PM UTC  US President Barack Obama pauses while speaking at Georgia Tech on March 10, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. US President Barack Obama pauses while speaking at Georgia Tech on March 10, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia.Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images by [Gabriel Scheinmann](https://time.com/author/gabriel-scheinmann/) ## Gabriel Scheinmann Mar 12, 2015 6:42 PM UTC The Obama Administration may be on the verge of [completing a deal](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/09/world/middleeast/obama-iran-nuclear-talks.html?%5Fr=0) that leaves Iran with a substantial nuclear capability, but about a year away from a bomb’s worth of fissile material. By not insisting on the dismantlement of any major nuclear infrastructure, or even on the complete cessation of enrichment activities, the White House is betting that not only is Iran likely to heed [the deal](http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/11/24/247004791/what-you-should-know-about-the-iran-nuclear-deal), but also that the United States would have enough time to act appropriately and decisively if it does not. Believing it has headed-off the seemingly unavoidable march towards war with Iran, the White House is [crowing](http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/white-house-official-nuclear-deal-is-best-way-to-avoid-war-with-iran/386806/) about its impending diplomatic feat. Unfortunately, rather than obviating the likelihood of war, this deal encourages it. For different reasons, inking this accord increases the chances that both Israel and the United States take military action against Iran to stop its nuclear pursuits. As former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger aptly concluded in [recent Congressional testimony](http://www.wsj.com/articles/kissinger-on-iran-1423527223), the goal of the nuclear talks has evolved “from preventing proliferation to managing it.” In doing so, the Administration has sown the seeds of future conflict. For Israel, the deal represents the failure of its decade-long effort to prevent Iranian proliferation. Unquestionably, the country has believed that it would not only be better to dismantle Iran’s program through non-military means, but also, if that option proved impossible, that the United States would take the lead in destroying Iran’s nuclear assets. The deal reveals that neither is true. The Obama Administration has chosen to tolerate rather than disassemble a vast Iranian nuclear program. Having an understandably much lower threshold for what it can tolerate due to its proximity to Iran and the regime’s heinous history, Israel may feel that it now has no choice but to take matters into its own hands, no matter how unattractive the consequences. Ironically, the deal also likely commits the United States to future military action against Iran. Even the modest restrictions imposed will be removed in a decade, by which time Iran’s warhead and delivery mechanism will be fully operational. If, as time goes by, Washington realizes that it is unintentionally midwifing an Iranian bomb, it will have little choice but to abrogate the accord itself. Faced with the prospect of not just a nuclear-capable but also a nuclear-armed Iran, Washington may be compelled to preempt this scenario. Moreover, the assumption of Iranian perfidy is baked into this deal. If merely a treaty-bound commitment were enough, then Iran’s longstanding membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should suffice. The concept of any additional negotiations suggests, quite rightly, that Iran is likely to vitiate its own assurances. The one-year break-out time is intended to give the U.S. enough of a lead to identify Iranian cheating and marshal the international community to re-impose sanctions that will make the country heel. Hardly a chess novice, Iran would see that it has nothing to gain and everything to lose by breaking its commitments and sparking a return to the status quo ante of international isolation. However, such a short break-out time only bolsters the likelihood of American military action. It took seven years of nuclear-related sanctions to coax Iran to the negotiating table, at which Iran has yet to make any irreversible commitments. No matter the president or Congress’ desire for alacrity, it would be impossible for even the most stringent sanctions to have their desired effect in less than twelve months. At that point, the only way the United States can prevent an Iranian break-out will be to credibly threaten the use of force. Perhaps unwittingly, the deal the Administration believes averts war only works if the U.S. is willing to go to war to enforce it. To avoid war, the United States and Israel have two options: accept Iran as a nuclear power or negotiate a deal that eliminates Iran’s capacity to be one. Such a deal must verifiably dismantle Iran’s entire nuclear infrastructure and remove its capacity to enrich uranium at any level. By doing so, it can extend the break-out time to a matter of years, ensuring that it will indeed have enough time to prevent an Iranian bomb through non-military means. The impending deal is not final. For cultural and political reasons, Iran may never agree to any deal, even one as advantageous as this one. Yet, unless the United States dramatically reverses the concessions it has made, this deal will not defer the threat of war, but accelerate it. _Read next:_ [_Is This the Man Who Could Beat Netanyahu and Become Israel’s Next PM?_](http://time.com/3740282/herzog-israel-election/?iid=time%5Freadnext) ### Photos: What Obama's Hugs Meant  You can see it by Obama’s bowed head and Hagel’s sorrowful face – this is an “I’m sorry” hug, plain and simple. Mandel Ngan—AFP/Getty Images  This hug between Obama and former Press Secretary Jay Carney may have been commemorating Carney’s departure, but all people will remember is its awkwardness. Susan Walsh—AP  Here’s where Obama’s hug game is the strongest: with Michelle. The peaceful smile on his face, the warm, full-body embrace – this is clearly an “I love you” hug. Consider it the antidote to the Carney debacle. Jim Watson—AFP/Getty Images  Obama’s hug with nurse Nina Pham after her battle with Ebola was a way to signal to the public that the disease is not as scary as some had thought. This is the hug as public health awareness. Olivier Douliery-—Getty Images  Critics charged that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "hugged" the president, but the Republican claimed it was just a handshake. Jewel Samad—AFP/Getty Images  The photo of Obama hugging a victim of Hurricane Sandy went viral- his solemn face and her tear-stained one, his arms protectively around her shoulders – this is a presidential hug in its purest form. Pablo Martinez Monsivais—AP  Though Obama’s peck on Burmese democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi’s cheek was a pro-democracy smooch, her visible recoil from the kiss indicates that he may have been better off with a handshake. Jason Reed—Reuters  Obama was literally swept off his feet by pizzeria owner Scott Van Duzer. The now-famous bear hug was a “celebrities are just like us” moment, when Obama showed he could still joke around in a regular ol’ pizza joint. Sept. 9, 2012. Pablo Martinez Monsivais—AP [_Listen to the most important stories of the day._](http://time.com/newsletter/the-brief/?sl%5Fautoplay=true&xid=spl-fullbrief-article) ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"OpinionNewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3742725/us-iran-nuclear-deal-war/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3742725/us-iran-nuclear-deal-war/"},"headline":"Obama’s Nuclear Deal Could Mean War","datePublished":"2015-03-12T18:42:32.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:05:06.028Z","description":"Inking this accord increases the chances that Israel and the United States take military action against Iran to stop its nuclear program","url":"https://time.com/3742725/us-iran-nuclear-deal-war/","keywords":["world affairs"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt70f9129e86d989f7/698783693c16394e044523d3/obama2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Gabriel Scheinmann","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/gabriel-scheinmann/"}],"articleSection":"Ideas","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt70f9129e86d989f7/698783693c16394e044523d3/obama2.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"US President Barack Obama pauses while speaking at Georgia Tech on March 10, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia.","caption":"US President Barack Obama pauses while speaking at Georgia Tech on March 10, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia.","creditText":"Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/ideas/","name":"Ideas"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/world-affairs/","name":"world affairs"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3742725/us-iran-nuclear-deal-war/","name":"Obama’s Nuclear Deal Could Mean War"}}]}] ```