When Will Justin Bieber Have His Lady Gaga Moment?

3 minute read

Justin Bieber has never been out of the headlines since his recording debut in 2009. And yet he’s never seemed more irrelevant. The pop singer, who turns 21 on Sunday, can barely be called a “pop singer” anymore; his last studio album was released in June 2012, with a 2013 compilation of previously-released singles failing to chart at all.

Nearly three years is a fairly significant gap between albums for an artist of Bieber’s tender age, leaving entirely aside the fact that Bieber has replaced productivity as an artist with a seemingly insatiable attitude for consumption, aggressive attitude, and hijinks that Bieber, turning 21, is getting a bit too old to call “youthful.”

Bieber has a lot going for him, including a legion of fans who are waiting for new music. The cycle of approval and disapproval for stars has been moving faster than ever in recent years, proven positive by Lady Gaga’s successful Oscars performance being understood, widely, as practically a full-scale comeback after a down period in her career. One good single, and then a subsequent album of strong material, could sate a fan base that has had little to celebrate in recent years.

Bieber’s participation in a seminude Calvin Klein shoot was headache-inducing for those who care about Bieber’s prospects; playing the bad-boy only works if there’s another side to the story. (Mark Wahlberg, after all, leveraged his underwear ads into movie stardom. With nothing to promote besides his body, what’s Bieber’s endgame?) A more promising sign, though, is Bieber’s participation in an upcoming roast on Comedy Central airing March 30. It’s true that participating places him in somewhat ignominious company: Past roast subjects, including Donald Trump and Charlie Sheen, have been pop-cultural punchlines with little prospect of getting taken seriously by the public at large. But in order to get out of his current morass, Bieber has to think creatively. Presenting himself as someone who’s in on the jokes, and ready to get them all out of the way in a single evening, is a canny way to move forward. Bieber has already apologized to the public for his behavior; it’s addressing it straightforwardly, and with wit, that will prove he’s ready to move on to the next phase of his career.

Bieber’s not really comparable to many other pop stars: Only Miley Cyrus began her mega-famous period quite so young, and Cyrus saves her child-star-gone-bad act for the stage. It is, fairly transparently, an act. Bieber’s current problems are difficult to overcome because they look, uncomfortably, less like a phase in an artist’s career and more like what he has grown into. There simply isn’t enough precedent for an artist who’s practically spent his entire adult life behaving badly in public to prove that he’s changed other than by doing the work of an artist every day.

Bieber should not apologize again—been there, done that—but instead devote himself to changing the conversation around him. A new album, with the associated live performances and concerts, would be part of making that change. Having people around him willing to be straightforward and honest, even if they’re only the roasters on a soundstage for a single night, would be another.

See Justin Bieber Over the Years

Justin Bieber Visits The Nintendo World Store - September 1, 2009
Justin Bieber visits the Nintendo World Store in 2009.Mark Von Holden—WireImage/Getty Images
ABC's "Good Morning America Weekend Edition" - 2009
Justin Bieber performs on Good Morning America: Weekend Edition in 2009.Anthony Randell—ABC/Getty Images
Justin Bieber Performs On NBC's "Today" - October 12, 2009
Justin Bieber performs on Today at Rockefeller Center in New York City in 2009.Theo Wargo—WireImage/Getty Images
B96 Jingle Bash 2009
Justin Bieber performs at the Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Ill. in 2009.Raymond Boyd—Getty Images
Z100's Jingle Ball 2009 - Show
Justin Bieber performs onstage during Z100's Jingle Ball 2009 at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 2009.Bryan Bedder—Getty Images
TNT's "Christmas In Washington 2009" ? Show
Justin Bieber performs during TNT's Christmas in Washington 2009 at the National Building Museum in Washington, DC in 2009.Kevin Mazur—WireImage/Getty Images
Pepsi Super Bowl Fan Jam
Justin Bieber performs at Pepsi Super Bowl Fan Jam on February 4, 2010 in Miami Beach, Fla.Troy Rizzo—Getty Images
Nickelodeon Hosts 2010 Upfront Presentation - Show
Justin Bieber performs onstage at the 2010 Nickelodeon Upfront Presentation at Hammerstein Ballroom in New York City. in 2010.Bryan Bedder—Getty Images
ABC's "The View" - Season 13
Justin Bieber performs on The View in 2010.Steve Fenn—ABC/Getty Images
KIIS FM's 2010 Wango Tango Concert - Show
Justin Bieber performs at 102.7 KIIS-FM's Wango Tango 2010 show, held at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2010.Jason LaVeris—FilmMagic/Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert - June 24, 2010
Justin Bieber performs at Sun National Bank Center in Trenton, NJ in 2010.Mark Von Holden—WireImage/Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert - Los Angeles, CA
Justin Bieber performs at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2010.Jason LaVeris—FilmMagic/Getty Images
2010 MTV Video Music Awards - Show
Justin Bieber performs on stage at the 2010 MTV Video Music Awards held at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2010.Kevin Mazur—WireImage/Getty Images
Justin Bieber Performs At The Staples Center
Justin Bieber performs onstage at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2010.Kevin Winter—Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert - Los Angeles, CA
Justin Bieber performs at Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2010.Jason LaVeris—FilmMagic/Getty Images
Justin Bieber Performs At Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall
Justin Bieber performs at the Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, NJ in 2010.Donald Kravitz—Getty Images
2010 American Music Awards - Audience And Show
Justin Bieber performs onstage at the 2010 American Music Awards held at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2010.Christopher Polk—Getty Images
Z100's Jingle Ball 2010 Presented by H&M - Show
Jaden Smith and Justin Bieber perform onstage during Z100's Jingle Ball 2010 presented by H&M at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 2010.Kevin Mazur—WireImage/Getty Images
Justin Bieber Performs In Rotterdam
Justin Bieber performs on stage at Ahoy in Rotterdam, Netherlands in 2011.Rob Verhorst—Redferns/Getty Images
MTV Europe Music Awards 2011 - Show
Justin Bieber performs onstage during the MTV Europe Music Awards 2011 live show at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland in 2011.Jeff Kravitz—FilmMagic/Getty Images
Christmas In Washington 2011
Justin Bieber performs during Christmas in Washington 2011 at the National Building Museum in Washington, DC in 2011.Theo Wargo—WireImage/Getty Images
Saturday Night Live
Tina Fey and Justin Bieber appear on Saturday Night Live.Dana Edelson—NBC/Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert
Justin Bieber performs at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, NJ in 2012.Bennett Raglin—WireImage/Getty Images
The 40th American Music Awards - Roaming Show
Justin Bieber performs onstage at the 40th American Music Awards held at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live in Los Angeles, Calif. in 2012.Alexandra Wyman—FilmMagic/Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert - New York, NY
Justin Bieber performs at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 2012.Kevin Mazur—WireImage/Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert - New York, NY
Justin Bieber performs at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 2012.Kevin Mazur—WireImage/Getty Images
Justin Bieber Performs In Zurich
Justin Bieber performs during his Believe tour at Hallenstadion Zurich, Switzerland in 2013.The Image Gate/Getty Images
Justin Bieber Performs In Munich
Justin Bieber performs on stage at Olympiahalle in Munich, Germany in 2013.Stefan M. Prager—Redferns/Getty Images
Justin Bieber "Believe" Tour - Brooklyn
Justin Bieber performs during his Believe Tour at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY in 2013.Kevin Mazur—WireImage/Getty Images
Justin Bieber In Concert - Atlanta, GA
Justin Bieber performs at Philips Arena in Atlanta, Ga. in 2013.Chris McKay—WireImage/Getty Images
2014 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival - Day 3
Justin Bieber performs during Day 3 of Coachella in Indio, Calif. on April 13, 2014.Kevin Winter—Getty Images

More Must-Reads From TIME

Contact us at letters@time.com