The Saudi Transition Looks Smooth—For Now

Ideas

January 23, 2015 10:17 AM EST

Elliott Abrams, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, was Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America in the Reagan Administration.

The death of the Saudi king does not portend major policy shifts, on oil pricing or on Saudi foreign policy. That policy was the product of an elite (or at least royal family) consensus, which will continue.

The question is whether the last year or two of drift, as King Abdullah grew ill, will now be replaced with strong Saudi leadership. Abdullah was widely respected at home and abroad, in part for his intelligence and in part for his piety. Whatever complaints were lodged against profligate Saudi royals did not apply to him, for his personal faith was very clear. He was in his way also a reformer, for example establishing the Kingdom’s first coed university, the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. For decades, he and President Mubarak of Egypt were the two most powerful Arab leaders and key western allies. Mubarak fell in 2011, and Abdullah’s health began to fade soon after. The Arab world has lacked responsible leadership recently, although the Emiratis have tried to fill the breach.

What remains to be seen is whether King Salman can now return the kingdom to its accustomed role, or is himself too old. He too has been widely respected, for his decades as governor of Riyadh and his role as family disciplinarian. But he will now have to contend with two major challenges. First, the region is unstable. Iranian power is rising, American power is seen as declining, there is war in Syria and Iraq, and now Yemen is in unfriendly hands. ISIS and Al Qaeda are direct threats to the Royal family. Second, Salman will face internal rivalries in the Royal family itself. The sons of the late king Abdullah will seek to retain some of the influence they have gained in the last few years, but King Salman’s sons will try to wrest it from them. Crown Prince Muqrin is the youngest member of his generation and after him power must pass to the next generation. But to whom? Which clique, which group of full brothers, will take over? Salman, like most of the recent crown princes and kings, is one of the “Sudairi Seven,” seven full brothers of the founder, King Abd-Al Aziz, and the same mother. Abdullah was not; Muqrin is not. The push and pull between the Sudairis in this generation and the next, and all other grandsons of the founder, may be hidden from our view but is likely to be fierce.

So far the succession is smooth. It will look that way for months at least, and Saudi foreign and oil policy will appear little changed if changed at all. But behind the scenes, there may be powerful tensions pulling the Royal family apart.

Rich Nation, Poor People: Saudi Arabia by Lynsey Addario

Fatima Hazazi stands in front of boxes of medicine she requires monthly to treat her kidney problem at home in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 2, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, Fatima and her family rely on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Fatima Hazazi stands in front of boxes of medicine she requires monthly to treat her kidney problem at home in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Despite the extremely wealthy sector of society in Saudi Arabia, and the the veneer of widespread affluence projected outside the Kingdom, severe poverty is as much a part of life in Riyadh as wealth.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Saudi children play on old furniture outside of the home where they live in squalor in a neighborhood in South Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, this family relies on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudi children play on old furniture outside of the home in which they live in a poor neighborhood in South Riyadh.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

One of twelve children living in a house where Yayeh Mussawa rents with his family plays in squalor in a neighborhood in South Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, this family relies on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — One of twelve children living in a house that Yayeh Mussawa rents with his family in South Riyadh. Like many across Saudi Arabia who are living barely above the poverty line, Mussawa's family relies on charity to survive. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Saudis beg in a line on a street known to locals as 'the beggers' street,' in a neighborhood in South Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, many poor Saudis rely on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudis beg in a line on a street known to locals as 'The Beggars' Street,' in South Riyadh.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Saudi children do dishes and live in squalor in a neighborhood in South Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, this family relies on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudi children do the dishes in a home in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Selma Saleh, a poor Saudi woman, sits on her bed in squalor in a neighborhood in South Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, this family relies on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Selma Saleh, an impoverished Saudi woman, sits on her bed in her home in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Matara stands with her two boys next to a sink without water, where she lives in squalor in a neighborhood in South Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 1, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, this family relies on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Matara stands with her two boys next to a sink without water in her home in South Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

A young man begs on the streets in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 3, 2013. Despite an extremely wealthy sector of society in Saudi Arabia, and the the veneer of widespread affluence projected outside the Kingdom, severe poverty is as much an aspect of life in Riyadh as wealth. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — A young man begs on the street in Riyadh.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Saudi citizens rest after presenting Saudi Billionaire HRH Prince al Waleed bin Talal with petitions for his help at a desert camp outside of Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, February 27, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, many poor Saudis rely on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudi citizens rest after presenting Saudi billionaire, HRH Prince al Waleed bin Talal, with petitions for his help at a desert camp outside of Riyadh.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Billionaire HRH Prince Waleed bin Talal, greets Saudi citizens at a desert camp outside of Riyadh to accept their petitions for his help, in Saudi Arabia, February 27, 2013. Like many families across Saudi Arabia who are barely scraping above the poverty line each month, many poor Saudis rely on the hope of the charity of others to survive. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudi billionaire, HRH Prince Waleed bin Talal, greets Saudi citizens at a desert camp outside of Riyadh to accept their petitions for his help.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Young Saudi women pray in a friend's home before going out to dinner in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 25, 2013. Though statistics are difficult to confirm, youth unemployment and poverty are on the rise in Saudi Arabia. While society is increasingly open to women in the workforce, there are still limited jobs in which women and men can work side by side. There are a great number of highly educated Saudis who can not find work suitable for their qualifications. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Young Saudi women pray in a friend's home before going out to dinner in Riyadh. Though statistics are difficult to confirm, youth unemployment and poverty are on the rise in Saudi Arabia. While society is increasingly open to women in the workforce, there are still limited jobs in which women and men can work side by side. There are a great number of highly educated Saudis who can not find work suitable for their qualifications.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

A Saudi woman bids on an Arabian Horse at an auction outside of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 3, 2013. Despite an extremely wealthy sector of society in Saudi Arabia, and the the veneer of widespread affluence projected outside the Kingdom, severe poverty is as much an aspect of life in Riyadh as wealth. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — A Saudi woman bids on an Arabian Horse at an auction outside of Riyadh.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Saudi men pray at dusk at a camel market outside of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 3, 2013. Despite an extremely wealthy sector of society in Saudi Arabia, and the the veneer of widespread affluence projected outside the Kingdom, severe poverty is as much an aspect of life in Riyadh as wealth. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudi men pray at dusk at a camel market outside of Riyadh.Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Saudis stand around after an auction for Arabian Horses at a club outside of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, March 3, 2013. Despite an extremely wealthy sector of society in Saudi Arabia, and the the veneer of widespread affluence projected outside the Kingdom, severe poverty is as much an aspect of life in Riyadh as wealth. (Credit: Lynsey Addario/ VII) — Saudis linger after an auction for Arabian Horses at a club outside of Riyadh. Lynsey Addario—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Rich Nation, Poor People: Saudi Arabia by Lynsey Addario

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