--- title: Obama: U.S. Intelligence Underestimated the Rise of ISIS description: The United States also overestimated the Iraqi Army's ability to defeat ISIS forces, Obama said canonical: https://time.com/3442254/obama-u-s-intelligence-isis/ author: Sam Frizell article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-09-28T19:31:41.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-21T10:27:24.023Z article:section: Politics og:title: Obama: U.S. Intelligence Underestimated the Rise of ISIS og:description: The United States also overestimated the Iraqi Army's ability to defeat ISIS forces, Obama said og:url: https://time.com/3442254/obama-u-s-intelligence-isis/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3fa647450997bdb2/6986a5c1e8524b98d9604f2d/ap193887366100.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 2200 og:image:height: 1238 og:image:alt: Barack Obama og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Obama: U.S. Intelligence Underestimated the Rise of ISIS twitter:description: The United States also overestimated the Iraqi Army's ability to defeat ISIS forces, Obama said twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3fa647450997bdb2/6986a5c1e8524b98d9604f2d/ap193887366100.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Obama Admits U.S. Intelligence Didn't See ISIS Coming > Sponsored content. 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Brief is TIME's Washington newsletter, written by senior correspondent Philip Elliott. It explains the politics, personalities and power dynamics behind the headlines, three times a week. It reaches 85,000 subscribers with a 37.0% open rate as of August 2026. #### Where can I get analysis of Washington politics by email? D.C. Brief is TIME's free Washington politics newsletter, available at time.com/newsletters. It is written by a TIME senior correspondent who covers the capital full time. #### Who writes TIME's D.C. Brief? Philip Elliott, a senior correspondent at TIME, writes D.C. Brief. #### Is D.C. Brief free? Yes. D.C. Brief is free at time.com/newsletters. by [Sam Frizell](https://time.com/author/sam-frizell/) ## Sam Frizell Sep 28, 2014 7:31 PM UTC  President Barack Obama pauses as he speaks at the Global Health Security Agenda Summit, Friday, Sept. 26, 2014, in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House complex in Washington. The president said that in an interconnected world, outbreaks of deadly viruses like Ebola have the potential to affect every nation. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) President Barack Obama pauses as he speaks at the Global Health Security Agenda Summit, Friday, Sept. 26, 2014, in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House complex in Washington. The president said that in an interconnected world, outbreaks of deadly viruses like Ebola have the potential to affect every nation. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)Carolyn Kaster—AP by [Sam Frizell](https://time.com/author/sam-frizell/) ## Sam Frizell Sep 28, 2014 7:31 PM UTC The U.S. underestimated the threat the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) posed in Syria and Iraq, President Obama conceded in an interview that will air on _60 Minutes_ Sunday, and overestimated the ability of the Iraqi army to secure their country. “\[Director of National Intelligence James Clapper\] has acknowledged that I think they underestimated what had been taking place in Syria,” Obama said. “Essentially what happened with \[ISIS\] was that you had al Qaeda in Iraq, which was a vicious group, but our Marines were able to quash \[it\] with the help of Sunni tribes,” Obama went on. “They went back underground, but over the past couple of years, during the chaos of the Syrian civil war, where essentially you had huge swaths of the country that are completely ungoverned, they were able to reconstitute themselves and take advantage of that chaos.” When asked about comments by the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, who has said the U.S. overestimated the ability and will of the Iraqi military to fight the extremist group, Obama said, “That’s true,” Mr. Obama said. “That’s absolutely true.” Obama had already admitted that the rise of ISIS took the U.S. by surprise. “I think that there is no doubt that their advance, their movement over the last several months has been more rapid than the intelligence estimates and I think the expectations of policymakers both in and outside of Iraq,” he said in an [August statement](http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/08/09/statement-president-iraq). ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3442254/obama-u-s-intelligence-isis/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3442254/obama-u-s-intelligence-isis/"},"headline":"Obama Admits U.S. Intelligence Didn't See ISIS Coming","datePublished":"2014-09-28T19:31:41.000Z","dateModified":"2026-02-21T10:27:24.023Z","description":"Intelligence chiefs have admitted they underestimated the threat posed by the Islamist group, Obama says","url":"https://time.com/3442254/obama-u-s-intelligence-isis/","keywords":["National Security","White House"],"thumbnailUrl":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3fa647450997bdb2/6986a5c1e8524b98d9604f2d/ap193887366100.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Sam Frizell","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/sam-frizell/"}],"articleSection":"Politics","image":[{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt3fa647450997bdb2/6986a5c1e8524b98d9604f2d/ap193887366100.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=1200:675&height=675","width":1200,"height":675,"headline":"Barack Obama","caption":"Barack Obama","creditText":"Carolyn Kaster—AP","representativeOfPage":true}],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/politics/","name":"Politics"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/national-security/","name":"National Security"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3442254/obama-u-s-intelligence-isis/","name":"Obama Admits U.S. Intelligence Didn't See ISIS Coming"}}]}] ```