--- title: Ebola: WHO Warns That Virus Could Infect 20,000 by November description: A new study by WHO warns of 20,000 Ebola cases worldwide in just over a month's time if more isn't done to stop the virus. canonical: https://time.com/3420281/who-ebola-west-africa-epidemic/ author: David Stout article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-09-23T07:43:46.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:00:38.088Z article:section: Health og:title: There Could Be 20,000 Ebola Cases Soon og:description: Public health experts warn that the epidemic could turn from “a disaster into a catastrophe.” og:url: https://time.com/3420281/who-ebola-west-africa-epidemic/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt11554e7027d1466b/6986a4bed0b6f26ebc3063d2/ebola-liberia-sierra-leone.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: Ebola Lessons og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: There Could Be 20,000 Ebola Cases Soon twitter:description: Public health experts warn that the epidemic could turn from “a disaster into a catastrophe.” twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt11554e7027d1466b/6986a4bed0b6f26ebc3063d2/ebola-liberia-sierra-leone.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # There Could Be 20,000 Ebola Cases by November if More Isn't Done Now > Sponsored content. 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Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. ### Sources * TIME Newsletters: [time.com/newsletters](/c/time-nl-network-2026q3/newsletters?i=06e72286-17d6-482e-a293-6268951ad621&cr=time-nl-network-2026q3-v1) ## Video: Why Do People Fear Ebola? [Watch (HLS stream): Why Do People Fear Ebola?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/o73TUhFa.m3u8) (1:31)  _Published 2014-08-10. Jay Varkey, MD, Assistant Professor of Emory University School of Medicine Division of Infectious Diseases on treating Ebola patients and the fear that goes with it._ by [David Stout](https://time.com/author/david-stout/) ## David Stout Sep 23, 2014 7:43 AM UTC  Nurses train to use Ebola protective gear with World Health Organization, WHO, workers, in Freetown, Sierra Leone on Sept. 18, 2014. Nurses train to use Ebola protective gear with World Health Organization, WHO, workers, in Freetown, Sierra Leone on Sept. 18, 2014. Michael Duff—AP by [David Stout](https://time.com/author/david-stout/) ## David Stout Sep 23, 2014 7:43 AM UTC A new study by the World Health Organization released on Tuesday warned of 20,000 Ebola cases worldwide in just over a month’s time if authorities failed to ramp up efforts to combat the growing epidemic. “We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 will be 5,740 in Guinea, 9,890 in Liberia, and 5,000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total,” [read](http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100?query=featured%5Fhome#t=article) the report published in the _New England Journal of Medicine_ this week. The Ebola virus is spread primarily through exposure to body fluids of symptomatic patients. Transmission of the virus is prevented through early diagnosis, contact tracing, patient isolation and infection control along with the safe burial of those killed by Ebola. However, the virus has primarily hit impoverished West African communities, where many of these protocols are difficult or impossible to enforce. “If we don’t stop the epidemic very soon, this is going to turn from a disaster into a catastrophe,” Christopher Dye, a co-author of the study and director of strategy at the WHO, [told reporters](http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-cases-triple-20-000-november-unless-efforts-044131014.html;%5Fylt=AwrSyCV3%5FSBUcWUAbNPQtDMD) in Geneva. “The fear is that Ebola will become more or less a permanent feature of the human population.” The publication of the new report comes as Sierra Leone [concluded](http://time.com/3417907/ebola-sierra-leone-lockdown/) an ambitious lockdown of the country for three days by effectively asking its 6 million residents to stay at home while approximately 30,000 volunteers and health officials canvassed the country to distribute soap and instructions on how to prevent contraction of the virus. There are [currently](http://time.com/3418350/ebola-nigeria-senegal-who/) 5,833 recorded cases of Ebola across six African nations. The disease has killed at least 2,833 people. ## Transcript So, why do people fear Ebola. It's new. Or at least it's recognized as being new here in the United States. It is a serious illness, but it's not a very contagious disease. This is not a particularly easy virus to transmit from one person to another. The whole notion of abating fear, when you talk about a disease that's reported to have. 50 to 60 to 90 % mortality rates. I would really caution on, something that we've been emphasizing for the last two weeks that that really needs to be taken with the recognition that those are mortality rates in healthcare environments that unfortunately do not have even close to the resources that we have here in the United States and other developed countries. The key to treatment for Ebola virus is supportive care. Supporting the patient long enough so that their immune system can develop the antibodies needed to really defeat this virus. We were sort of in a unique position of having this unit that was designed to take care of diseases far more contagious than the Ebola virus. But in this particular circumstance, it seemed like the right place to to care for these patients. My hope is, is that by providing excellent care here, that we learn process that can be translated and expanded so that, that, in my opinion, in a fair and just world, that those processes if they are really a key to improving survival. 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