--- title: Irvine Welsh: Scotland Has Already Dealt the UK Elite a Crushing Defeat description: A 'No' vote means an even bigger headache for the London political establishment—a rerun of the independence debate in every UK election. canonical: https://time.com/3386812/irvine-welsh-scotland-has-already-dealt-the-uk-elite-a-crushing-defeat/ author: Irvine Welsh article:opinion: true article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-09-16T15:30:27.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-08-04T08:00:40.229Z article:section: Ideas og:title: Irvine Welsh: Scotland Has Already Dealt the UK Elite a Crushing Defeat og:description: A 'No' vote means an even bigger headache for the London political establishment—a rerun of the independence debate in every UK election. og:url: https://time.com/3386812/irvine-welsh-scotland-has-already-dealt-the-uk-elite-a-crushing-defeat/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt95635c50a5523987/6986a37bcd804dcd53cccc4f/scottish-referendum.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 3000 og:image:height: 1688 og:image:alt: Scottish Referendum Debate Continues As Vote Is Too Close To Call og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Irvine Welsh: Scotland Has Already Dealt the UK Elite a Crushing Defeat twitter:description: A 'No' vote means an even bigger headache for the London political establishment—a rerun of the independence debate in every UK election. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt95635c50a5523987/6986a37bcd804dcd53cccc4f/scottish-referendum.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Irvine Welsh: Scotland Has Already Dealt the UK Elite a Crushing Defeat > Sponsored content. 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[Watch (HLS stream): Besides Scotland, Where Else is Secession Possible?](https://cdn.jwplayer.com/manifests/hWa6FEa5.m3u8) (2:35)  _Published 2014-09-16. Scotland holds a referendum on September 18th to decide if they want to break away from the UK and be an independent country, but who else have they inspired?_ by [Irvine Welsh](https://time.com/author/irvine-welsh/) ## Irvine Welsh Sep 16, 2014 3:30 PM UTC  Yes campaigners stand near No supporters at Dumbarton Town Hall as former Prime Minister Gordon Brown leaves after attending a rally on Sept. 16, 2014 in Glasgow, Scotland. Yes campaigners stand near No supporters at Dumbarton Town Hall as former Prime Minister Gordon Brown leaves after attending a rally on Sept. 16, 2014 in Glasgow, Scotland. Peter Macdiarmid—Getty Images by [Irvine Welsh](https://time.com/author/irvine-welsh/) ## Irvine Welsh Sep 16, 2014 3:30 PM UTC Whatever happens with the Scottish independence vote, the result will be a crushing defeat for the status quo and the UK political establishment. If there’s a YES vote, then the compelling narrative is one of a small country smashing through vested interests, and bursting into nationhood. A NO vote, on the other hand—once the relief of the last-ditch saving of the union is processed—and the story becomes about the emergence of a people’s democratic movement for change. Through the discussions over the referendum debate, those in favor of independence have gone from 30% to 45-55%; momentum is only heading in one direction. This entire process has been a disaster for the major UK-based parties and the antagonistic mainstream London media (including the publicly-funded BBC, which came over like _Pravda_). They all lost massive credibility north of the border by seeing the debate as one about narrow nationalism, rather than the extension of democracy it had long evolved into. The YES campaign, with grass-roots support and fueled by social media, have convincingly won the arguments against their NO counterparts, led (or misled), by all the establishment parties. It has been a stunning victory for the people against the elites and the out-of-touch political class. The NO campaign were forced to rely almost solely on fear tactics as the benefits and connection of the union to Scotland are either historical (industry, empire, and the _esprit de corps_ engendered by two world wars) or currently being dismantled by the major parties, the welfare state and the NHS only being protected in Scotland due to the devolved parliament. There are not many NO votes in saying you want to use the Scottish oil revenues to fund more privatization projects to sell off state assets to the rich, or to build London as a metropolitan super state for those transnational elites. The vote could go either way. While there is still residual loyalty to Britain, particularly amongst older Scots, many NO voters want the British state reformed, with more powers heading north. David Cameron made a terrible error in leaving the so-called “devo max”—also known as maximum devolution—option off the ballot paper, forcing voters to choose between YES and NO. Rather than the predicted rout for NO, many stampeded towards the YES camp, turning the referendum into a neck-and-neck race. A YES vote would, for the UK, mean the loss of resources from a country that is rich in them and light on population (only 10% of UK total). For Scotland, it would seem to present massive opportunities. Arguably, however, a NO vote means an even bigger potential headache for the London political establishment. They would have to look at decentralizing more power to Scotland or have the same rerun of the independence debate in every subsequent UK election. In such a scenario they would no longer face just Alex Salmond, and his bourgeois civic nationalist party of the centre-left, but a vibrant, broad-based movement for democracy. In 1979, barely a third of Scots could be bothered to vote for an Edinburgh parliament with limited devolved powers. Now around half, and probably rising, are pro independence. The problem with any offer of “devo max” is that without substantial powers it will be unlikely to appease the Scots. But then people in areas of England, where the unitary, centralized, status quo is perceived as working fine, may not put up with this situation. This is particularly the case in the prosperous South East, where 25 million people will feel they shouldn’t have to accommodate 5 million, and will correctly be inclined to say “go.” It would be like having a busted toilet that doesn’t flush, with the chain being pulled at every general, local, and European election: distracting, messy, and ultimately soul-destroying. It’s hard to see the Conservatives offering more powers to the Scots, as they have no support there—the bulk of their votes being in the South of England. Equally, a focus-group and polls-driven Labour Party, their eyes constantly on middle England, are unlikely to offer up much, or stand on the genuinely radical, modernizing, democratic agenda the post-devolution generation of Scots crave. The notion of federalism for the UK, flouted as the panacea by the Liberals and some on the left, is a fantasy fuelled by the same top-down establishment thinking that has led to the current situation. Imposing an unwanted parliament on a region like East Anglia, where there has been no movement for devolution, is as fundamentally undemocratic as denying an Edinburgh one its full range of powers. At least with a YES vote, the issue of Scotland is left up to the Scots. They can get on with building the sort of social democratic society they crave, based on a citizen’s charter, rather than entrenched hierarchy and elitism. The rest of UK, or it’s constituent parts, can then get on with deciding on the best system of government that suits them, instead of having to pander to a minority who have a different agenda. Whether the result is YES or NO, it’s that turbulent, quarrelsome, compassionate minority, the Scots themselves, who have—quite astonishingly—won the day. At 97% voter registration, unprecedented in the Western World, they have shown that a G7 power state, mired in a neo-liberal model of globalization, can be challenged, even broken up, and a vibrant, non-militaristic democracy established. This amazing country has, to its own great surprise, lit a torch of freedom that will burn across the world. ## Transcript This week, residents of Scotland will go to the polls to answer a simple question: should the country become fully independent? Yes! Right now polls are split and the vote seems likely to go down to the wire. The ramifications of an independent Scotland will go well beyond the British Isles. [ MUSIC ] A yes vote in Scotland would definitely encourage other separatist groups around the world that would like to become independent. The residence of Catalonia, which is a region in the northwestern Spain that includes Barcelona, is set for an independence referendum on November 9th. Unlike the Scottish wrote though, the Catalonia one is going against the wishes of the spanish Government. The Catalonians can be just the beginning. The European Union, which is a block made up of 28 different countries, is already under pressure because of economic policies following the 2008 recession. An independent Scotland could encourage Baske and Spain, Flesmslimoulin and Belgium [ UNKNOWN ] And Corcia is in France and that's just the beginning. The small cession movement in the state of Texas is looking to Scotland for support as are the Quebecers in Canada. If Scotland can become independent, why shouldn't they? For the majority of the British people in [ CROSSTALK ]. And without Scotland, what's left of the United Kingdom is much more likely to pull out of the European Union, which could doom the EU altogether. A dismembered Great Britain would also be a much weaker one. Without Scotland, the United Kingdom will lose a third of its land mass and millions of its citizen. Great Britain has often been an American ally and a major player on the world's stage. But would be a much harder role to play without Scotland. It may not even be a nuclear power any longer. Great Britain's nuclear deterrent was made made up of missile carrying submarines in their base in the Scottish port of Fast Lane. This is totally different to a general election. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron has made a major push against independence in recent days. Well before [ UNKNOWN ] resigned of Scotland votes yes. England. The political turmoil resulting from a yes vote will [ UNKNOWN ] everything from oil revenues to the salmon fisheries that are shared by England and Scotland still need to be decided will almost certainly have an economic cost. There would likely be a major one. There are estimates that if Scottish independence causes Britain to leave the EU, economic growth in the country could decline by billions upon billions of Dollars over the next decade, and it's likely to be even worse for an independent Scotland. The country won't be able to control its own currency, it'll still be using the British Pound. 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