LEANING DEMOCRAT 2016 LEANING REPUBLICAN
In recent presidential contests, the GOP nominee has been handicapped by demographic shifts, as younger and more diverse voters who traditionally lean Democratic became a larger share of the electorate. These trends will continue in 2016, when Republicans will need to hold on to the aging baby-boom vote while making inroads among Hispanics and women.
16% OF 2016 18+ POP
Hispanics
+3.9 MILLION PEOPLE
15% OF 2016 18+ POP.
College-educated women
+3.9 MILLION PEOPLE
6% OF 2016 18+ POP.
Asians
+1.2 MILLION PEOPLE
19% OF 2016 18+ POP
Ages 65+
+4.5 MILLION PEOPLE
47% OF 2016 18+ POP.
Unmarried
+8.2 MILLION PEOPLE
[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.]
NOTABLE VOTING-GROUP GAINS
Percentage-point gain from previous election, by party
WINNER
% popular vote
LOSER
Ages 18-29
+10
Women
+9
49%
CLINTON
1996
DOLE
41%
Hispanics +14
Women +5
48%
BUSH
2000
GORE
48%
Ages 60+ +7
Suburban +3
51%
BUSH
2004
KERRY
48%
Ages 18-29 +12
Hispanics +14
53%
OBAMA
2008
MCCAIN
46%
Asians +11
Hispanics +4
51%
OBAMA
2012
ROMNEY
47%
SOURCES: U.S. CENSUS; EDISON MEDIA RESEARCH NATIONAL ELECTION POOL
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