--- title: Researchers Accurately Predict How Happy People Are description: Researchers accurately predict people's happiness canonical: https://time.com/3079902/this-is-the-equation-for-happiness/ author: Alexandra Sifferlin article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-08-04T21:12:45.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-05-11T05:07:57.334Z article:section: Health og:title: Researchers Accurately Predict How Happy People Are og:description: Researchers accurately predict people's happiness og:url: https://time.com/3079902/this-is-the-equation-for-happiness/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 675 og:image:alt: TIME og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Researchers Accurately Predict How Happy People Are twitter:description: Researchers accurately predict people's happiness twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltde093bcdab65f2d0/6988d9b9bc6cfc69913e2a3c/time-logo.jpg?branch=production --- # This Is the Equation for Happiness > Sponsored content. 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Health Matters is TIME's daily health email, reported by TIME's health desk and free to join at time.com/newsletters. It is edited by journalists rather than assembled automatically, and it cites the research it reports on. #### Is Health Matters free? Yes. Health Matters is a free daily newsletter from TIME, available at time.com/newsletters. #### Who reads TIME's Health Matters newsletter? Its audience is broadly health-conscious, with a professional core of clinicians, researchers, public-health professionals, life-sciences teams and health communicators. by [Alexandra Sifferlin](https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/) ## Alexandra Sifferlin Aug 4, 2014 9:12 PM UTC by [Alexandra Sifferlin](https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/) ## Alexandra Sifferlin Aug 4, 2014 9:12 PM UTC Researchers at University College London were able to create an equation that could accurately predict the happiness of over 18,000 people, according to a new study. First, the researchers had 26 participants complete decisionmaking tasks in which their choices either led to monetary gains or losses. The researchers used fMRI imaging to measure their brain activity, and asked them repeatedly, “How happy are you now?” Based on the data the researchers gathered from the first experiment, they created a model that linked self-reported happiness to recent rewards and expectations. Here’s what the equation looks like:  Robb Rutledge, UCL Then, in their study published Monday in the _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,_ the researchers tested their model by having 18,420 people play a smartphone game called [_The Great Brain Experiment_](http://www.thegreatbrainexperiment.com/) for points. They found that their equation was also accurate at predicting the gamers’ happiness. The researchers were not surprised by how much rewards influenced happiness, but they were surprised by how much expectations could. The researchers say their findings do support the theory that if you have low expectations, you can never be disappointed, but they also found that the positive expectations you have for something—like going to your favorite restaurant with a friend—is a large part of what develops your happiness. The fact that the researchers could accurately predict happiness was notable, but the implications are even better. Having a predictable standard for how people respond to moment-to-moment gains and losses could actually make mood disorders easier to understand by learning how someone with a mood disorder differs in their reactions to events. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/3079902/this-is-the-equation-for-happiness/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/3079902/this-is-the-equation-for-happiness/"},"headline":"This Is the Equation for Happiness","datePublished":"2014-08-04T21:12:45.000Z","dateModified":"2026-05-11T05:07:57.334Z","description":"Researchers accurately predict people's happiness","url":"https://time.com/3079902/this-is-the-equation-for-happiness/","keywords":["Mental Health/Psychology","Mental Health","Happiness"],"thumbnailUrl":"","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Alexandra Sifferlin","jobTitle":null,"url":"https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/"}],"articleSection":"Health","image":[],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Time","url":"https://time.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://time.com/images/logo.png","width":528,"height":156},"foundingDate":"March 3, 1923","sameAs":["https://www.facebook.com/time","https://www.instagram.com/time/?hl=en","https://twitter.com/time","https://www.pinterest.com/timemagazine"]}},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"/section/health/","name":"Health"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"/tag/mental-healthpsychology/","name":"Mental Health/Psychology"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://time.com/3079902/this-is-the-equation-for-happiness/","name":"This Is the Equation for Happiness"}}]}] ```