3 Reasons Venezuela’s Protesters Won’t Win

5 minute read

A day after Venezuela commemorated the one-year death anniversary of its charismatic and demagogic former President Hugo Chavez, the clashes and protests that have roiled the country for weeks showed no sign of abating. At least two people died Thursday in Caracas during a confrontation between demonstrators barricading a street and paramilitary and National Guard forces attempting to disperse them. That brings the death toll to 20 in less than a month of unrest.

What began as student protests animated by the disastrous state of the country’s economy—wracked, as it is, by record inflation and food and goods shortages—has morphed into perhaps the greatest challenge facing the regime that Chavez built, which in recent years has been mired in allegations of corruption and incompetence. The opposition accuses Chavez’s handpicked successor, President Nicolas Maduro, of brutally cracking down on dissent and stifling freedom of speech. Maduro has rounded angrily on his domestic opponents as well as critics overseas, most recently breaking diplomatic ties with nearby Panama. But despite the upheaval, those seeking the collapse of the Chavista state are likely to be disappointed. Here’s why:

Venezuela is not Ukraine. Ever since the country’s unrest began, it has been obscured from global attention by the crisis in Ukraine. The standoff in Kiev, followed by the political chaos that prompted Russia’s power play in the Crimea, is a narrative more urgent to outside observers, staged on a Cold War landscape familiar to the West. Venezuela, in comparison, seems a Caribbean pantomime. A leftist leader fumes against mythical fascist plots and yanqui imperialism; his enemies mutter darkly about the reach of Cuban agents. But Maduro does not straddle as precarious a geopolitical faultline as Ukraine’s now ousted President Viktor Yanukovych. To be sure, the events have many in the region concerned, not least as Venezuela sits atop some of the world’s largest oil reserves. But Maduro retains considerable popular support among a whole section of society uplifted, or at least persuaded, by Chavez’s socialist populism. And while he appears to have unleashed both government forces and paramilitary groups—motorcycle gangs known as colectivos—to vicious effect on the demonstrations, even those who are angry and galvanized among the protesters seem doubtful of winning real, revolutionary gains.

The opposition is weak. Despite his best efforts to publicly bind himself to Chavez’s legacy, Maduro clearly lacks his predecessor’s force of personality. Yet opposition politicians have been unable to capitalize on the former bus driver’s political frailties. Some seem stigmatized by their connections to the country’s traditional elite—whose corruption and abuse of power in earlier decades gave rise to Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution. U.S.-educated Leopoldo Lopez, the now jailed opposition leader who rose to the fore during the protests, made a valiant effort to whip up popular support. But his uncompromising anti-government stance appears to have irked the other prominent opposition figure, Henrique Capriles, who narrowly lost to Maduro in elections last year and was slowly, carefully broadening his base in the hope of electoral success down the road. The Chavista camp has too strong a hold on the organs of the state to be toppled by the protests, at least in their present form. And, as TIME contributor Girish Gupta reported last month, many of those massing at the barricades have little love for the opposition either.

If Maduro falls, it’ll likely be at the hands of a Chavista rival. Indeed, perhaps the real political story underlying Maduro’s woeful year in power is that of the machinations of the man who almost won his post—Diosdado Cabello, Chavez’s other favored lieutenant. Cabello now helms Venezuela’s main legislature and is seen as something of a master manipulator behind the scenes, a bullying schemer deeply invested in the survival of the Chavista state and its possession of vast oil reserves. But in recent weeks, there are signs that the tacit struggle between him and Maduro has become “more pronounced,” writes Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a columnist for the Venezuelan daily El Universal. As Maduro’s reputation plummeted, Cabello started to play a more public, outsized role—launching even his own weekly TV show in the style of Chavez. He is believed to command the backing of much of the army as well as wealthy pro-government businessmen. Even if he didn’t replace Maduro, suggests Lansberg-Rodriguez in the Atlantic, he would be Venezuela’s kingmaker: “If Maduro falls, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which Cabello does not play an integral role in deciding who and what succeeds him.” That’s a prospect unlikely to excite the anguished crowds now braving tear gas and birdshot on Venezuela’s streets.

Venezuela’s Protests Against Maduro Government Continue

Demonstrators prepare to throw molotov bombs against Bolivarian National Police officers during clashes in Caracas, March 6, 2014.
Demonstrators prepare to throw molotov bombs against Bolivarian National Police officers during clashes in Caracas, March 6, 2014. Fernando Llano—AP
Cardboard cutouts in shapes of headstones and crosses and tied to a fence, bear anti-government protest slogans and names of those who have died in recent protests, in Caracas, March 5, 2014.
Cardboard cutouts in shapes of headstones and crosses and tied to a fence, bear anti-government protest slogans and names of those who have died in recent protests, in Caracas, March 5, 2014. Fernando Llano—AP
Protesters raise their hands in a sign of peace after the Bolivarian National Guard cut the march in two parts, not allowing part of the march to continue, Caracas, March 4, 2013.
Protesters raise their hands in a sign of peace after the Bolivarian National Guard cut the march in two parts, not allowing part of the march to continue, Caracas, March 4, 2013. Eduardo Leal—Polaris
Opposition demonstrators set a fire by a barricade as they protest against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on March 4, 2014.
Opposition demonstrators set a fire by a barricade as they protest against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on March 4, 2014. Juan Barreto—AFP/Getty Images
Masked demonstrators throw stones at Bolivarian National Police during clashes in Caracas, March 3, 2014.
Masked demonstrators throw stones at Bolivarian National Police during clashes in Caracas, March 3, 2014. Fernando Llano—AP
A protester hurls a molotov cocktail at National Guard troops in one of the largest anti-government demonstrations yet on March 2, 2014 in Caracas.
A protester hurls a molotov cocktail at National Guard troops in one of the largest anti-government demonstrations yet on March 2, 2014 in Caracas.John Moore—Getty Images
Demonstrators use a giant slingshot to launch stones at Bolivarian National Guards during clashes in Caracas, March 2, 2014.
Demonstrators use a giant slingshot to launch stones at Bolivarian National Guards during clashes in Caracas, March 2, 2014. Fernando Llano—AP
A demonstrator shouts slogans against Bolivarian National Guards during clashes in Caracas, March 2, 2014.
A demonstrator shouts slogans against Bolivarian National Guards during clashes in Caracas, March 2, 2014. Rodrigo Abd—AP
Members of the National Guard shoot during a protest against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in Caracas on March 2, 2014.
Members of the National Guard shoot during a protest against the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in Caracas on March 2, 2014. Leo Ramirez—AFP/Getty Images
Anti-government protesters run away from tear gas during clashes with the national guard at Altamira square in Caracas, Feb. 28, 2014.
Anti-government protesters run away from tear gas during clashes with the national guard at Altamira square in Caracas, Feb. 28, 2014. Tomas Bravo—Reuters
Anti-government demonstrators take cover from a police water cannon in Caracas, Feb. 28, 2014.
Anti-government demonstrators take cover from a police water cannon in Caracas, Feb. 28, 2014. Rodrigo Abd—AP
Demonstrators roll a water pipe in an attempt to block a major highway during clashes with the Bolivarian National Guard in Caracas, Feb. 27, 2014.
Demonstrators roll a water pipe in an attempt to block a major highway during clashes with the Bolivarian National Guard in Caracas, Feb. 27, 2014. Fernando Llano—AP
A demonstrator throws an incendiary device during clashes with Venezuelan National Bolivarian Guard during a protest against president Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, Feb. 27, 2014.
A demonstrator throws an incendiary device during clashes with Venezuelan National Bolivarian Guard during a protest against president Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, Feb. 27, 2014.Miguel Gutierrez—EPA
Riot police clash with opponents of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during an anti-government protest in Caracas on Feb. 27, 2014.
Riot police clash with opponents of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during an anti-government protest in Caracas on Feb. 27, 2014. Leo Ramirez—AFP/Getty Images
A motorcyclist rides through burning debris after an anti-government demonstration on Feb. 27, 2014 in Caracas.
A motorcyclist rides through burning debris after an anti-government demonstration on Feb. 27, 2014 in Caracas.John Moore—Getty Images
A couple stand next to their car trapped between barricades set up by anti-government protesters, in Valencia, Venezuela, Feb. 27, 2014.
A couple stand next to their car trapped between barricades set up by anti-government protesters, in Valencia, Venezuela, Feb. 27, 2014. Rodrigo Abd—AP
Lilian Tintori, wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, and opposition deputy Maria Corina Machado take part in a women's rally against Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas Feb. 26, 2014.
Lilian Tintori, wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, and opposition deputy Maria Corina Machado take part in a women's rally against Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas Feb. 26, 2014. Jorge Silva—Reuters
Protesters build a barrier in the Las Pilas area of San Cristobal, Feb. 24, 2014. The capital of Tachira State, bordering Colombia, is the site of the some of the fiercest protests against the government of President Nicolas Maduro.
Protesters build a barrier in the Las Pilas area of San Cristobal, Feb. 24, 2014. The capital of Tachira State, bordering Colombia, is the site of the some of the fiercest protests against the government of President Nicolas Maduro. Meridith Kohut—The New York Times
Protesters on a rooftop light Molotov cocktails to throw at police below in San Cristobal, Venezuela, in the pre-dawn hours of Feb. 24, 2014.
Protesters on a rooftop light Molotov cocktails to throw at police below in San Cristobal, Venezuela, in the pre-dawn hours of Feb. 24, 2014. Meridith Kohut—The New York Times
Carmen Gonzalez cries over the body of her son Jimmy Vargas Gonzalez, who was killed in clashes with national police in San Cristobal, Venezuela.
Carmen Gonzalez cries over the body of her son, Jimmy Vargas Gonzalez, who was killed in clashes with national police in San Cristobal, Venezuela, Feb. 24, 2014. The capital of Tachira State, bordering Colombia, is the site of the some of the fiercest protests against the government of President Nicolas Maduro.Meridith Kohut—The New York Times
Community members hold mass to pray for the end to violence against protesters in a barricaded area in San Cristobal, Feb. 23, 2014.
Community members hold mass to pray for the end to violence against protesters in a barricaded area in San Cristobal, Feb. 23, 2014. Meridith Kohut—The New York Times
A man carries a woman affected by tear gas launched by riot police at anti-government protesters in Caracas, Feb. 22, 2014.
A man carries a woman affected by tear gas launched by riot police at anti-government protesters in Caracas, Feb. 22, 2014. Rodrigo Abd—AP
Supporters of the Venezuelan opposition rally on a street in Caracas, Feb. 22, 2014.
Supporters of the Venezuelan opposition rally on a street in Caracas, Feb. 22, 2014. Meridith Kohut—The New York Times
Riot police advance towards demonstrators during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Feb. 22, 2014.
Riot police advance towards demonstrators during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Feb. 22, 2014.Tomas Bravo—Reuters
Objects placed by opposition protesters block a road in the Altamira neighborhood of Caracas, Feb. 20, 2014.
Objects placed by opposition protesters block a road in the Altamira neighborhood of Caracas, Feb. 20, 2014. Rodrigo Abd—AP
A demonstrator raises his arms toward the Bolivarian National Police firing tear gas and a water canon in the Altamira neighborhood of Caracas, Feb. 19, 2014.
A demonstrator raises his arms toward the Bolivarian National Police firing tear gas and a water canon in the Altamira neighborhood of Caracas, Feb. 19, 2014.Rodrigo Abd—AP
Lopez supporters clash with riot police in effort to block the path of the armored vehicle carrying Leopoldo Lopez after he surrendered to the police, in Caracas, Feb. 18, 2014.
Lopez supporters clash with riot police in effort to block the path of the armored vehicle carrying Leopoldo Lopez after he surrendered to the police, in Caracas, Feb. 18, 2014. Meridith Kohut—Bloomberg/Getty Images
Opposition leader Leopoldo López arrives to the march in a swarm of supporters, Feb. 18, 2014. Thousands of people took to the streets today to support López as he surrendered to police during a peaceful march in Caracas.
Opposition leader Leopoldo López arrives to the march in a swarm of supporters, Feb. 18, 2014. Thousands of people took to the streets today to support López as he surrendered to police during a peaceful march in Caracas. Meridith Kohut—Bloomberg/Getty Images
Riot police guard the armored vehicle with Leopoldo Lopez inside, in Caracas, Feb. 18, 2014.
Riot police guard the armored vehicle with Leopoldo Lopez inside, in Caracas, Feb. 18, 2014. Meridith Kohut—Bloomberg/Getty Images
A mother yells at the riot police during a student protest against the Venezuelan government, in Caracas, Feb. 17, 2014.
A mother yells at the riot police during a student protest against the Venezuelan government, in Caracas, Feb. 17, 2014. Meridith Kohut—Bloomberg/Getty Images

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