--- title: Scientists Can Now Predict the Flu description: A mathematical model could make future seasons' vaccines more accurate canonical: https://time.com/10560/scientists-can-now-predict-the-flu/ author: Alexandra Sifferlin article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2014-02-26T21:18:47.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-02-21T06:31:04.432Z article:section: Health og:title: Scientists Can Now Predict the Flu og:description: A mathematical model could make future seasons' vaccines more accurate og:url: https://time.com/10560/scientists-can-now-predict-the-flu/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0534387af9fd13af/6986836313c79f593e190cdf/98472190-copy-1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1500 og:image:height: 844 og:image:alt: Girl in bed with thermometer in mouth og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Scientists Can Now Predict the Flu twitter:description: A mathematical model could make future seasons' vaccines more accurate twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/blt0534387af9fd13af/6986836313c79f593e190cdf/98472190-copy-1.jpg?branch=production&width=1200&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Scientists Can Now Predict the Flu > Sponsored content. 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Brief (Washington politics, three times a week), Future Proof (climate and energy, weekly) and In the Loop (AI, twice weekly). All are free at time.com/newsletters and together reach more than 1.1 million engaged readers. #### Which TIME newsletter should I subscribe to? It depends on what you follow. For a daily briefing, The Brief. For health, Health Matters. For Washington politics, D.C. Brief. For AI and technology, In the Loop. For climate and energy as a business story, Future Proof. For culture recommendations, Worth Your Time. For how TIME's journalism gets made, Inside TIME. Readers can select any combination at time.com/newsletters. #### Are TIME's newsletters free? Yes. All seven TIME newsletters are free to join at time.com/newsletters. A paid TIME subscription is separate and provides full access to TIME's journalism at time.com/subscribe-agent. #### Who writes TIME's newsletters? TIME journalists write them. Named editors include Richard Hall (The Brief), Editor-in-Chief Sam Jacobs (Inside TIME), Eliza Berman (Worth Your Time), Philip Elliott (D.C. Brief), Justin Worland (Future Proof) and Harry Booth (In the Loop). Health Matters is written by TIME's health desk. #### How do I sign up for a TIME newsletter? Go to time.com/newsletters, choose the newsletters you want and enter your email address. There is no cost and no subscription requirement. by [Alexandra Sifferlin](https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/) ## Alexandra Sifferlin Feb 26, 2014 9:18 PM UTC  Girl in bed with thermometer in mouth Girl in bed with thermometer in mouth Getty Images by [Alexandra Sifferlin](https://time.com/author/alexandra-sifferlin/) ## Alexandra Sifferlin Feb 26, 2014 9:18 PM UTC Researchers have figured out a formula that can predict the evolution of the seasonal flu for the next year. In a study published in the journal _Nature_, researchers from Columbia University and the University of Cologne looked at the way the common H3N2 flu virus mutated and changed throughout the years since 1968\. Based off that data, they created a mathematical model that accurately predicts how the virus will change in the future. The seasonal H3N2 influenza accounts for about half a million deaths every year. To determine what flu strains should be included in the vaccine each year, health experts study the virus, how it changes, and its frequency. The prediction model that researchers have now come up with is significant because it could make the shot you get every season even more accurate, and thus flu-resistant. To create their model, the researchers looked at the viruses circulating in a given season and its genomes, as well as how many people those viruses infected. Some of the viruses’ adaptive mutations, which occur in what is called the haemagglutinin protein of a virus, were shown to increase the virus’ life and growth, whereas others crippled it. By examining every strain of the virus through the decades, the study’s authors formulated an equation. More weight was given to mutations that were likely to boost the virus, and the strain’s strength was determined by factoring in its growth rate. When researchers went back and compared their estimates to various years, they found their formula to be highly accurate. The results of the study have to be replicated before they can begin to be applied to our real-world seasonal vaccines, but the study’s authors say they hope that a more precise prediction method could lead to a highly protective vaccine. 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